Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,653 claims · page 26 of 27

2,653 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 2007 In René Girard's theory, knowledge of the founding murder is driven by the historical working of the Judeo-Western revelation. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Peter Thiel Factual 2007 The original expropriation of oil built as many as half of the greatest fortunes of the twentieth century. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 2007 Thomas Hobbes boasted of having deserted and run away from fighting in a religious war. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Three color channels are not enough to discriminate between all natural surface reflectances. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Science and research methods
Resolved true Jim Cramer Factual 20 Nov 2006 Companies' third-quarter 2006 earnings reports, just released as of 20 November 2006, were strong. Jim Cramer · Factual · 20 Nov 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 Servicers may generally advance interest payments to a mortgage pool when a mortgage goes delinquent. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 Existing home sales figures released on 2006-09-25 showed falling home prices. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 As of September 2006 there was not yet hard data on exactly what was happening in the market, but home prices were sluggish. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 In 2006 returns for many hedge funds are below those of safe Treasury bills. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 Real US home prices have increased by about 90 percent since 1997. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 Over the 110 years since 1890, rising housing supply has been accompanied by falling prices. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jim Cramer Factual 15 Aug 2006 The stock market has had multiple rallies and selloffs since May 2000, and that pattern is not changing. Jim Cramer · Factual · 15 Aug 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 10 Apr 2006 Daniel Drezner offered commentary on the possibility of a US attack on Iran. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 10 Apr 2006 On TradeSports around April 2006, the implied probability of a US or Israeli attack on Iran before December 2006 was about 20 percent. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 2006 The housing bust would lead to a banking and financial crisis as homeowners defaulted on mortgages and banks failed. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 The hinge loss with G_W(X)=W^T X and a ||W||^2 regularizer gives the linear support vector machine. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 The hinge loss systematically chooses the most offending incorrect answer as the one whose energy is pulled up. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Mostly true Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Rising delinquencies and defaults will continue to push delinquency-to-credit-support ratios higher on the subprime tranches Scion is short. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 The generalized perceptron loss is always positive because its second term is a lower bound on its first term. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 Science and research methods
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 Support vector Markov models, max-margin Markov networks and conditional random fields are all sequence modeling systems that use linearly parameterized energy factors. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 2006 Park Place Securities Incorporated (PPSI) is the depositor in the PPSI 2005-WLL1 mortgage deal. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Michael Burry Factual 2006 Because home prices rose steadily for a long time, troubled homeowners were able to refinance, take cash out and often reduce monthly payments at the same time, which reduced foreclosure rates. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 Inference algorithms in energy-based learning often give only approximate answers or do not guarantee finding the global energy minimum. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 2006 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would go bankrupt and the credit crunch would lead to a US recession by some time in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2006 Each NLL iteration involves considerably more work because pushing up every incorrect answer is expensive when the second term's derivative has no analytical form. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2006 AI capabilities
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2006 Burry said the positions "we" are short are now effectively undercollateralized by performing mortgages, pointing to ratios of delinquent, bankrupt, foreclosed and REO loans to total credit support, several of which were above one. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2006 In a securitization, each trust is divided into tranches, each defined and rated by the degree of subordination protecting its principal from loss. Michael Burry · Factual · 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual Oct 2005 New technologies such as RNA interference are promising and could be harnessed against viral threats. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Oct 2005 Biosecurity
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual Oct 2005 Analyses have shown that detonating an atomic bomb in a modern city could kill as many as 1 million people. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Oct 2005 Other global risks
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual Oct 2005 In a 2005 New York Times opinion piece, Ray Kurzweil and Bill Joy discussed serious decisions facing those who control powerful technological and scientific data, know-how and instrumentation. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Oct 2005 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Sep 2004 Composer Elliott Carter was still composing prolifically beyond his ninetieth birthday. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Sep 2004 Elliott Carter's late short pieces are usually written for a very small number of instruments. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Sep 2004 Over the ten years to 2004, Elliott Carter's reputation rose sharply. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Sep 2004 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 21 Mar 2004 War and other disruptions appear to damage capital income more than labor income. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 21 Mar 2004 Economics and markets
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Lead artist Brian Gillies wanted a shiny "atomic age" 1960s style for Evil Genius. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 In Evil Genius, the more the player gloats, the more notoriety is gained, and notoriety is key to progress. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Delivered on time Demis Hassabis Promise 2004 Hassabis said Elixir was confident that players would get their hands on Evil Genius in fall 2004. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 2004 Other
Mostly true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Demis Hassabis first conceived the kernel of the idea for Evil Genius before Elixir Studios had started. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 In Evil Genius, more gloating increases the chance that a captured agent turns the tables and escapes. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Evil Genius was influenced by non-spy classics such as Enter the Dragon and Flash Gordon. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Factual 2004 Many journalists came away from previews of Evil Genius amused. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 2004 Other
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 We do not see extraterrestrial civilizations and have no indication of their existence, a challenge known as the Fermi paradox. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Ten or 15 years after 2002, computing will move to three-dimensional circuits as integrated circuits run out of steam. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Genome scanning speed doubled every year during the Human Genome Project, and most of the work was done in the project's last year. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 The uncompressed human genome contains about 800 million bytes. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 There is progress in software, though its doubling factor is much slower than hardware's. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 AI capabilities
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Moore's Law (shrinking transistors on integrated circuits) was the fifth paradigm, not the first, to provide exponential growth in computing. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Faster-than-light effects seen in quantum disentanglement experiments transmit quantum randomness rather than information. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil estimates the brain's information content at thousands of trillions of bytes, millions of times greater than the genome. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Historically Berkshire has obtained its insurance float at very low cost, with a cost below zero in about half the years it has operated. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects the FINOVA transaction overall to prove satisfactory for Berkshire. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire lost $2 billion to $2.5 billion in the September 11th event without having been paid properly for the risk assumed. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 MidAmerican Energy's reported earnings should increase considerably in 2002 because the goodwill amortization charge will disappear under new GAAP rules. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 At the parent company level, Berkshire makes no charitable contributions except those designated by shareholders. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Buffett previously assured shareholders that General Re was underwriting with discipline, and that assurance proved wrong. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Buffett said the year he was reporting on was Berkshire's worst year in float cost since 1984, a result that he said Berkshire to a significant degree brought upon itself. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2002 Buffett will keep well over 99% of his net worth in Berkshire. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2002 Buffett and Munger will not take cash compensation, restricted stock or option grants that would make their results superior to shareholders'. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 The genome does not contain enough information to specify the brain down to the last synapse, and the brain is not completely shaped by sensory input either. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Twins separated at birth are no more different in intelligence and personality than twins raised together; growing up together does not make people more similar in the long run. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 The connections Pinker draws in his new book between human nature and political systems were prefigured in Enlightenment debates and in the framing of the American Constitution. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Neuroscience has shown that our thoughts, feelings, urges and consciousness depend completely on the physiological activity of the brain. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Mostly false Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Children of culturally inept immigrants do fine if they can learn the ropes from native-born peers. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2002 Probably about half of the variation in personality can be attributed to differences in genes. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2002 Science and research methods
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual 3 Jul 2001 The Scion Value Fund does not generally offer portfolio transparency to its members. Michael Burry · Factual · 3 Jul 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon reached 25 million customers and $2 billion in sales, which it had not expected. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's consumer electronics business surpassed music in 2000 to become its second largest business, and had been open for 17 months. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 When Amazon started, it had a hard time raising its first $1 million, then obtained $8 million from venture capital. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Prediction 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's site will have more community features where customers help other customers make purchase decisions. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's initial plan was to grow slowly and become profitable quickly. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Five years earlier, Amazon's website looked so different that there was no comparison with what it was in 2001. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon expected $100 million in sales in its first five years. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 By holiday 1999, some companies were raising $60 million with one phone call and spending it all in one quarter on advertising. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Apr 2001 Amazon's U.S. books, music and video segment showed a $125 million operating profit in Q3 2000, its second profitable quarter. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Apr 2001 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Prediction 2 Apr 2001 Some e-commerce businesses will fail in 2001. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 2 Apr 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire's practice of keeping most shoe production in domestic factories has cost its shoe businesses heavily. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 GEICO's policyholder growth slowed to a halt as 2000 progressed. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Buffett said Berkshire was confident that EJA (NetJets) would remain the world leader in fractional ownership in planes flying, service quality and safety standards. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 GEICO's underwriting loss in 2000 produced a float cost of 6.1%. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Because these transactions, which typically come in large chunks, can materially distort the company's figures, it will tell readers about them as they occur. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire paid for the 1993 Dexter acquisition using Berkshire shares. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Chess champion Patrick Wolff will play blindfolded against all comers in the mall at the 2001 Berkshire meeting weekend. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 For the next couple of years the Civic Auditorium will be Berkshire's only venue choice for its annual meeting. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Omaha will shortly have a new Convention Center with ample parking. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2001 In 2000 Berkshire had an insurance underwriting loss of $1.6 billion, giving a float cost of 6%. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire will hold its annual meeting at the Civic Auditorium on Saturday, April 28, 2001. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 If the new Convention Center is available, Buffett will poll shareholders on whether to return to a Monday annual meeting. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2001 Buffett and Charlie Munger will answer shareholder questions until 3:30 p.m. at the 2001 meeting, except for a noon break. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they read, by the second decade of the 21st century. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 A personal computer can download fully trained speech-recognition patterns in seconds without repeating the training process. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI capabilities
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Supercomputers will achieve one human brain's capacity by 2010, and personal computers by around 2020. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Exponential-outlook views of the economy will prevail gradually over the next several years, producing a strong continuing updraft for the stock market. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The fifteen-year human genome project was completed slightly ahead of schedule. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Science and research methods
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 A computer can remember billions or trillions of facts perfectly, while humans struggle to remember a handful of phone numbers. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 AI compute, hardware and data
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Demis Hassabis

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Factual Other

“So far we seem to have succeeded in this aim, with many a journalist coming away from their preview chuckling mightily.”

Demis Hassabis, executive designer, Elixir Studios 2004 Evil Genius Designer Diary #1 (GameSpot)

Many journalists came away from previews of Evil Genius amused.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2004. True: multiple contemporary press previews of Evil Genius (Elixir Studios) describe the game as funny or amusing, or report that journalists enjoyed its humour. Mostly true: several previews note its humour, but only a few, so 'many' is slightly overstated. Mixed: preview reactions to the humour were split. Mostly false: few previews mention finding it amusing. False: previews were generally negative about, or did not engage with, its humour.

Evidence

  1. Evil Genius Hands-On Impressions GameSpot · 18 August 2004
    “The game is certainly filled with plenty of humorous moments, from the inspired methods your minions will use to interrogate prisoners”
  2. GDC 2004: Evil Genius - IGN IGN · 27 March 2004
    “which offers up even more comedic value as you grill agents using cake mixers, sliding bookcases and microwaves.”
  3. PC Preview - 'Evil Genius' WorthPlaying · 2 September 2004
    “The control room objects are a hoot in themselves”

Reasoning

Three independent 2004 previews of Evil Genius comment on its humour. GameSpot's hands-on says the game is 'filled with plenty of humorous moments' (E1). IGN's GDC 2004 preview mentions 'even more comedic value' in the interrogation scenes (E2). WorthPlaying calls the control room objects 'a hoot' (E3). This meets the 'true' criterion, which requires multiple contemporary previews that describe the game as funny or amusing.

Cite this claim

Demis Hassabis, “Many journalists came away from previews of Evil Genius amused.” (said 2004). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_fc7b3bbad5d7, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fc7b3bbad5d7

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.