Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,653 claims · page 27 of 27

2,653 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Prediction Jan 2001 Within a couple of decades of 2001, the computational power to emulate the human brain will be available. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Jan 2001 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved false Ray Kurzweil Factual Jan 2001 The projections being discussed assume a fixed rate of growth of 3.5% per year for the next fifty years. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Jan 2001 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com said it had been told that its American Customer Satisfaction Index score of 84 was the highest ever recorded for a service company in any industry. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Mixed Michael Burry Factual 2001 The cost of employee stock option compensation is borne by shareholders through significant dilution. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Factual 2001 Burry earns no income from Scion Capital unless members' annual return exceeds 6% net of expenses. Michael Burry · Factual · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 By the end of the decade (the 2000s), full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available, with images written onto the retinas by eyeglasses and contact lenses. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Technology
Resolved false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 2001 Within ten years of 2001, biotechnology advances will add more than a year of life expectancy every year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 Science and research methods
Delivered on time Michael Burry Promise 2001 The Scion Value Fund's minimum initial investment for future investors will be raised to $250,000 as of the July 1, 2001 investment date. Michael Burry · Promise · 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com's average spend per customer in 2000 was $134, up 19%. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com's share price was down more than 80% from when Bezos wrote the previous year's shareholder letter. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Amazon.com's sales grew to $2.76 billion in 2000 from $1.64 billion in 1999. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 2001 Price performance of processing power is doubling about every 18 months (Moore's Law). Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2001 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Guidance 2001 Amazon.com has set the goal of achieving a pro forma operating profit in the fourth quarter of 2001. Jeff Bezos · Guidance · 2001 Economics and markets
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Damage from self-replicating software is much less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the benefit received from computers and communication links. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Mixed Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The 'immune system' that evolved in response to computer viruses has been largely effective. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Technology
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Many long-range forecasts of technical feasibility dramatically underestimate the power of future technology because they rest on what the speaker calls the 'intuitive linear' view of technological progress rather than the 'historical exponential view'. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The law of accelerating returns is based on a model of diverse technological processes that Kurzweil has developed over the past couple of decades. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Substantial portions of humanity still live precarious, fragile existences. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The rate of paradigm shifts is currently doubling approximately every decade. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Ray Kurzweil played a role in bringing the dangers of self-replicating technologies to Bill Joy's attention. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Kurzweil's 'law of accelerating returns' does not rely merely on assuming Moore's Law continues. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 Examining technology data in many ways and time scales shows at least double exponential growth. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual 23 Oct 2000 The history of technology shows technological change is at least exponential. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 23 Oct 2000 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 30 Mar 1999 There has been a lot of free software available over the 20 years before 1999. Bill Gates · Factual · 30 Mar 1999 Technology
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 30 Mar 1999 Linux and similar free software have proliferating different versions, because everybody can go into the source code, and everybody does. Bill Gates · Factual · 30 Mar 1999 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 1999 Amazon.com has served a cumulative 6.2 million customers as of the end of 1998. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 1999 In 1995 in The Road Ahead, Bill Gates used the term friction-free capitalism to describe how the Internet was helping create Adam Smith's ideal marketplace. Bill Gates · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 1999 Amazon.com's sales grew from $148 million in 1997 to $610 million in 1998, a 313% increase. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 1999 25% of Amazon.com's fourth-quarter 1998 sales came from Amazon.co.uk, Amazon.de, and music, video and gift sales on Amazon.com. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 1999 Amazon.com reached a billion-dollar sales rate with just $30 million in inventory and $30 million in net plant and equipment. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeff Bezos Factual 1999 Amazon.com's music store became the leading online music retailer in its first full quarter. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 1999 Amazon.com's employee base grew from approximately 600 to over 2,100 during 1998. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 1998 In 1997 Amazon.com substantially enhanced its online store, adding gift certificates, 1-Click shopping, and more reviews, content, browsing options and recommendation features. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1998 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 1998 Amazon.com was the market leader in online bookselling at the end of 1997. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1998 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 1998 Amazon.com dramatically lowered prices in 1997. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1998 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 1998 Amazon.com's cash and investment balances at end of 1997 were $125 million, following its May 1997 IPO and a $75 million loan. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1998 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Promise 1998 Amazon.com plans to add music to its product offering. Jeff Bezos · Promise · 1998 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 1998 By the end of 1997 Amazon.com had served more than 1.5 million customers, with revenue up 838% to $147.8 million. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1998 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 1997 Amazon.com's sales grew from $15.7 million in 1996 to $147.8 million in 1997, an 838% increase. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 1997 Economics and markets
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 Netscape did not have a major sales force in Europe as of June 1995. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 The government set the OSI networking standard, which nobody uses. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 Cryptography is export-controlled by the US government as a munition, and Netscape makes exportable versions of its software, which are the ones predominantly used on the Internet. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 The Internet already existed when Andreessen began working at the university lab, and everybody there used it. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 The networks in question all use TCP/IP, which was not a government standard. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction Jun 1995 Catalogs of Internet resources will be supported by advertising in the future. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 In June 1995, Andreessen said he thought Netscape had about six million Navigator users on the public network, not counting users behind firewalls. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 Early in his time at the University of Illinois, Andreessen started working in a research lab at the university's physics research facility. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 The Mosaic team designed Mosaic with end users as its target. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 Internet access was never free; it always cost money. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 After the company shipped product in December, its revenues went from zero to a level where it was pretty much able to fund the bulk of its work and development. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 Yahoo was started by Ph.D. students at Stanford. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Technology
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual Jun 1995 Leaving aside access into the home, general bandwidth is improving in price-performance, or dropping in price, faster than microprocessors, by a factor of about four each year. Marc Andreessen · Factual · Jun 1995 Economics and markets
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Ray Kurzweil

Open its page

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

“we’re not there yet, but we will be there within a couple of decades”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author January 2001 The Law of Accelerating Returns (Kurzweil Library)

Within a couple of decades of 2001, the computational power to emulate the human brain will be available.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

Judge at the end of 2021. The benchmark is the brain-emulation computing requirement stated in Kurzweil's own 2001 essay (on the order of 10^16 calculations per second). If the essay gives no figure, use the commonly cited functional-emulation estimate of about 10^16 operations per second. True: by 31 Dec 2021 at least one existing computer system (for example a TOP500 supercomputer) had documented sustained performance at or above that requirement. Mostly true: the requirement was met by 2021 but only on a slightly different measure (for example peak rather than sustained performance) or within about 10% of it. Mostly false: the requirement was met only after 2021, or only against a lower or narrower estimate than the one the claim relies on. False: the evidence shows no system reached the stated requirement by the end of 2021.

Evidence

  1. TOP500 List - November 2021 TOP500 · November 2021
    “| 1 | Supercomputer Fugaku - Supercomputer Fugaku, A64FX 48C 2.2GHz, Tofu interconnect D, Fujitsu RIKEN Center for Computational Science Japan | 7,630,848 | 442.01 | 537.21 | 29,899 |”
  2. November 2021 TOP500 · November 2021
    “Its HPL benchmark score is 442 Pflop/s, which exceeded the performance of Summit at No. 2 by 3x.”
  3. The Singularity Is Near - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 30 June 2004
    “Kurzweil looks at several different estimates of how much computational capacity is in the brain and settles on 1016 calculations per second and 1013 bits of memory.”

Reasoning

The benchmark is about 10^16 calculations per second, which E3 reports as Kurzweil's own figure and which the criteria also set as the fallback. The November 2021 TOP500 list (E2) reports Fugaku's HPL benchmark score as 442 Pflop/s, about 4.4×10^17 operations per second. Fugaku's HPL benchmark score of 442 Pflop/s on the November 2021 list [E2] is well above the requirement of about 10^16 calculations per second, before the end of 2021. E1's table row is unlabelled, so the verdict relies on E2's labelled figure.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “Within a couple of decades of 2001, the computational power to emulate the human brain will be available.” (said January 2001). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_cc6d33ab260b, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cc6d33ab260b

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.