40 claims
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 11 Nov 2024 | Amodei guessed that within about 10 months AI models would probably get pretty close on typical real-world programming tasks, reaching at least 90%. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 30 Jun 2024 | The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 30 Jun 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2024 | After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 24 May 2023 | US politicians will cause investors to lose more money as the May 2023 debt ceiling negotiations drag on. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 24 May 2023 | If the market follows the 2011 debt ceiling pattern, US stocks will fall about 12% from their level on 2023-05-24 to the bottom. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 6 Apr 2023 | The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it). Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2023 | The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 13 Oct 2022 | The situation where several companies can produce good reasoning models will rapidly cease as everyone moves further up the scaling curve. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 14 Dec 2021 | Gary Marcus bet that hybrid (neurosymbolic) AI models would pull ahead in 2022. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Dec 2021 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Musk said he was highly confident Tesla's cars would drive themselves with reliability in excess of a human in 2021. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Safe Level 5 full self-driving can be achieved using only the current Full Self-Driving computer version 1. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | 2017 | DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved false | Bill Ackman | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nate Silver | Prediction | 2015 | Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 | Other |
| Resolved false | Nate Silver | Prediction | 2015 | In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 | Other |
| Resolved false | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 20 Aug 2011 | Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 23 Dec 2010 | Traditional lithium-ion bulk batteries will almost certainly not be around in 15 years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Ray Dalio | Prediction | Jun 2010 | The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Oct 2009 | GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Oct 2009 | The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 28 Sep 2007 | Khosla said he believed 50 million acres of US land could supply all US biofuel needs. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Apr 2007 | GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 25 Sep 2006 | New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 2001 | Within ten years of 2001, biotechnology advances will add more than a year of life expectancy every year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 | Science and research methods |
“Bitcoin is higher than $10,000 at end of year: 80%”
Scott Alexander, blogger January 2018 2018 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex)
Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018.
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
What would count as true or false
True: Bitcoin's price on 31 December 2018 was above $10,000. Use the daily close on a major price index or exchange aggregate such as CoinMarketCap, CoinDesk BPI or Bitstamp. Mostly true: not used for a price threshold. Mostly false: the price was below $10,000 but within 2% of it ($9,800 to $10,000). False: the price was below $9,800.
Evidence
- Historical Snapshot - 31 December 2018 | CoinMarketCap CoinMarketCap · 31 December 2018
“Symbol Market Cap Price Circulating Supply volume (24h) % 1h % 24h % 7d 1 BTC Bitcoin BTC $65,331,499,157.74 $3,742.70”
- Bitcoin Returns in 2018 by Month and Day | Maketo Maketo · 1 January 2018
“Closed - $3,747.39 - Year return - −72.94%”
- 比特币2018年价格走势图 btc126 · 6 January 2018
“| 2018-12-31 | 3868.74 | 3725.87 |”
Reasoning
CoinMarketCap's historical snapshot for 31 December 2018 lists Bitcoin's price as $3,742.70 [E1]. Maketo's page on Bitcoin's 2018 returns gives a close of $3,747.39 and a year return of −72.94% [E2]. Both figures are far below the $9,800 cutoff that would separate mostly false from false, so the claim resolves false.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018.” (said January 2018). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_f92a043a8b27, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f92a043a8b27
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.