Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 53 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Nate Silver Factual 11 Oct 2016 FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Trump only a 20 percent chance of winning given his polling numbers at the time of the second debate. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Other
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 11 Oct 2016 The two scientific polls after the second 2016 presidential debate showed a Clinton win, but a more marginal one than after the first debate. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 11 Oct 2016 Silver said that all the scientific polls after the first 2016 presidential debate showed Clinton had won by a pretty emphatic margin. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 11 Oct 2016 Scientific post-debate polls showed voters thought Clinton did better in the second 2016 presidential debate. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Nate Silver Factual 11 Oct 2016 Silver said he thought "we" had the team, then playing in the NLDS, at "a 35 percent chance or something" of winning the three series in a row it still needed, and that the figure was rising. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Other
Mixed Nate Silver Factual 11 Oct 2016 Other forecasts gave Trump even lower chances than the 20 percent in Silver's forecast with numbers like those: five or ten percent. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Oct 2016 Other
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Promise 28 Jul 2016 LeCun will teach his NYU deep learning course again in the Spring of 2017. Yann LeCun · Promise · 28 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 28 Jul 2016 There have been a number of recent works putting graphical models on top of ConvNets and training end to end. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jul 2016 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 28 Jul 2016 There have been many proposals to combine neural nets and structured prediction, going back to the early 1990s. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jul 2016 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 28 Jul 2016 The check reading system LeCun and a colleague built at Bell Labs in the early 1990s used structured prediction on top of convolutional nets, called Graph Transformer Networks. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jul 2016 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 28 Jul 2016 Videos of LeCun's 2015 NYU deep learning course lectures were taken down for legal reasons, while the slides remain available. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 28 Jul 2016 Yann LeCun gave a recent series of 8 lectures on deep learning at Collège de France in Paris. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 28 Jul 2016 LeCun's Collège de France lectures were taught in French and later dubbed in English. Yann LeCun · Factual · 28 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 21 Jul 2016 Berkshire has a provision that in any corporate transaction Class A stock cannot be treated differently from Class B stock. Warren Buffett · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 21 Jul 2016 Buffett has given away about 40% of his Berkshire shares as of July 2016. Warren Buffett · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Peter Thiel Factual 21 Jul 2016 Thiel does not agree with every plan in the Republican Party's platform. Peter Thiel · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 21 Jul 2016 When Buffett gives away his Berkshire shares, he always converts the Class A voting stock into Class B stock first. Warren Buffett · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 21 Jul 2016 Among candidates in the 2016 race, only Donald Trump is being honest about America's economic decline. Peter Thiel · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 21 Jul 2016 Berkshire does not use consultants or advisory organizations to direct how it votes its shares. Warren Buffett · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 21 Jul 2016 In certain countries there are various ways for workers to participate in company governance. Warren Buffett · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 21 Jul 2016 New constituencies in corporate governance, such as activists, have become stronger over the years. Warren Buffett · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 21 Jul 2016 In Thiel's childhood the great national debate was about defeating the Soviet Union, whereas now the great debate is said to be about who gets to use which bathroom. Peter Thiel · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Peter Thiel Factual 21 Jul 2016 Neither Peter Thiel nor Donald Trump is a politician. Peter Thiel · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Peter Thiel Factual 21 Jul 2016 Peter Thiel builds companies and supports people building new things, from social networks to rocket ships. Peter Thiel · Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Promise 20 Jul 2016 As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 Worldwide regulatory approval of self-driving will require on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km) of driving data. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 Tesla Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice 89 million miles, i.e. over 178 million miles. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Factual 20 Jul 2016 When used correctly, Tesla's Autopilot is already significantly safer than a person driving alone. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Elon Musk Promise 20 Jul 2016 In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own ride-hailing fleet. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Elon Musk Promise 20 Jul 2016 Tesla plans to address most of the consumer vehicle market with the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Promise 20 Jul 2016 Tesla will remove the beta label from Autopilot once it is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 Adding cars to a Tesla shared fleet will lower the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Elon Musk Factual 20 Jul 2016 Providing solar power has been on Tesla's website for 10 years. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 Refinement and validation of self-driving software will take much longer than installing the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Elon Musk Factual 20 Jul 2016 Tesla's fleet learning is currently happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 Tesla believes the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport while increasing safety. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Elon Musk Factual 20 Jul 2016 Every Tesla Autopilot release goes through extensive internal validation before reaching any customers. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 The economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a non-self-driving car. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Elon Musk Factual 20 Jul 2016 The first Tesla master plan, written by Elon Musk 10 years before 2016, is in the final stages of completion. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 With autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink buses and turn bus drivers into fleet managers. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Factual 20 Jul 2016 Musk said that starting with step 1 was all he could afford to do with what he made from PayPal. Elon Musk · Factual · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Elon Musk Promise 20 Jul 2016 Tesla's version 1.0 of its Model 3 factory machine will probably arrive in 2018. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 When regulators approve true self-driving, Tesla owners will be able to summon their Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 A first-principles physics analysis suggests that a 5 to 10 fold improvement in automotive production is achievable by version 3 of Tesla's factory machine, on a roughly 2-year iteration cycle. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 20 Jul 2016 Tesla plans to create an integrated solar-roof-with-battery product and scale it throughout the world. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual Jun 2016 In his first blog post on Trump, in June 2016, Sam Altman said it would be a good time for everyone to start speaking up. Sam Altman · Factual · Jun 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual 28 Jan 2016 In 2015 there was no financial crisis, except perhaps in the energy, commodity and currency markets. Bill Ackman · Factual · 28 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual 28 Jan 2016 Pershing Square missed the opportunity in 2015 to trim or sell certain positions that approached its estimate of intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Factual · 28 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that UNSONG would get fewer hits than Slate Star Codex in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that the US would not get involved in any new major war with a death toll above 100 US soldiers in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Donald Trump would win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander will score at or above the 95th percentile on next year's PRITE (psychiatry in-training exam). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 No major war in Asia (over 100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and American deaths combined) over disputed islands will occur in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that there would be no major intifada in Israel in 2016 (over 250 Israeli deaths, excluding a Cast Lead style war). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Research failed Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 The occupation of the Oregon ranger station will end in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Assad would remain President of Syria. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander will not stop using Twitter, Tumblr, or Facebook in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than it did in January 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Oil will end 2016 lower than $40 a barrel. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander makes predictions at the start of every year and scores them at the end of each year. Scott Alexander · Factual · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander will still be at his current job at the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Libya would remain a mess. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved false Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Greece would not announce in 2016 that it was leaving the euro. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 US unemployment will be lower at the end of 2016 than at the beginning. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that North Korea's government would survive 2016 without a large civil war or revolt. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Own records only Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander will attend at least one Solstice event in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Nobody important will change their mind much about the EMDrive based on information found in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 12 Jan 2016 The Department of Health and Human Services released a lot of new data the day before (2016-01-11) showing how the ACA helped support entrepreneurs. Sam Altman · Factual · 12 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual 12 Jan 2016 The Affordable Care Act definitely helped a lot of founders start their companies. Sam Altman · Factual · 12 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 12 Jan 2016 Without the ACA, being a founder would make sense for fewer people. Sam Altman · Factual · 12 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 Even the largest index funds have only about 20 people (one per ~1,000 companies) in their governance departments. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 U.S. fracking oil will soon run off, revealing rising costs of finding ever-diminishing new oil pools. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square bought additional Platform Specialty Products stock at $25 per share to help the company finance an acquisition. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 Grantham guessed that the price of oil would be as high as $100 a barrel again within five years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 The shift to alternative fuels (electric vehicles, storage, climate policy, carbon taxes) is likely to cause oil's final paradigm shift. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2016 China uses a much larger fraction of total global minerals than it does of global oil. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 In 2015 Pershing Square missed opportunities to trim or sell positions that approached its estimate of intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square's currency puts have not served as a useful hedge against declines in its portfolio, which fell more than expected given limited China and oil exposure. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 As of early 2016 Pershing Square had made only a modest profit on its yuan and Saudi Riyal hedge investments. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 A 60% stock/40% bond portfolio would be lucky to deliver 3% a year even if current high P/Es and above-normal margins were locked in. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2016 Near the 2000 peak Grantham challenged audiences, perhaps 2000 professionals in total, to find a bubble that had not fully broken, and he said no one offered one. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square has had limited turnover on its investment team and throughout the firm since its inception. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2016 In his previous quarterly letter written in January, Grantham said market commentators were too pessimistic on global stock markets, especially the U.S. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square has never attempted to hedge short-term market movements but has sought inexpensive hedges against the risk of dramatic market declines. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square continues to hold its yuan and Saudi Riyal currency put investments as of early 2016. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street often cumulatively own 12%, and as much as 20%, of nearly every public company. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2016 Grantham's 2011 resources report got many multiples of the hits of a typical GMO quarterly letter. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 Early in 2015 Pershing Square believed the Chinese stock market was in bubble territory but found the cost of buying puts on it prohibitive. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Promise Jan 2016 Pershing Square expects to add at least one new investment to its portfolio in the next few months after January 2016. Bill Ackman · Promise · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
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Scott Alexander

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Prediction Other global risks

“North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 95%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 Predictions For 2016 (Slate Star Codex)

Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that North Korea's government would survive 2016 without a large civil war or revolt.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

What would count as true or false

A factual claim about what Scott Alexander wrote in his January 2016 predictions post. True: the post lists 'North Korea's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt' at 95%. Mostly true: 95% is given for an essentially identical proposition. Mostly false: the item appears at a different probability. False: there is no such item. The actual outcome in North Korea is not tested.

Reasoning

No evidence with a verified quote was found apart from the claim's own source, so the claim was not judged.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that North Korea's government would survive 2016 without a large civil war or revolt.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_f395ea11ce53, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f395ea11ce53

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.