Claims

Factual · AI, the economy and work

“Yet for every job that was eliminated, we invented several new ones”

Ray Kurzweil, book reviewer in NYT · March 2017 · How we'll end up merging with our technology (Kurzweil Library / NYT)

For every job that was eliminated, several new ones were invented, with the work force growing from 24 million people (31 percent of the population) in 1900 to 142 million (44 percent of the population) in 2015.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Parts: the US workforce was (a) about 24 million, roughly 31% of the population, in 1900; (b) about 142 million, roughly 44% of the population, in 2015; and (c) job creation outpaced elimination, with several new jobs for each job eliminated. True: Census and BLS data match (a) and (b) within about 5% for the counts and about 2 percentage points for the shares, and economic evidence supports net creation of several jobs for each one eliminated. Mostly true: the figures match closely, with one minor slip, and job creation clearly outpaced elimination, even if 'several per job' is loosely supported. Mixed: the figures are accurate but the 'several new jobs per eliminated job' ratio is unsupported or contradicted, or vice versa. Mostly false: the figures are substantially off (beyond about 15%), or workforce growth is presented as proof of the ratio when it only reflects population growth. False: the figures are clearly wrong and the job claim is contradicted.

Evidence

1. American Labor in the 20th Century - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 30 January 2003

   “The workforce registered 24 million in 1900 with those aged 10 and above reporting a gainful occupation;1 in 1999 it was 139 million (aged 16 and older).2”

2. 2015 Annual Averages - Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population, 1945 to date U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 10 February 2016

   “| 2015 | 250,801 | 157,130 | 62.7 | 148,834 | 59.3 | 2,422 | 146,411 | 8,296 | 5.3 | 93,671 |”

3. American Labor in the 20th Century - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 30 January 2003

   “The population at the beginning of the century was 76 million, but approached 280 million by the end of the century.”

4. False Alarmism: Technological Disruption and the U.S. Labor Market, 1850–2015 Information Technology and Innovation Foundation · 8 May 2017

   “The period from 2010 to 2015 saw approximately 6 technology-related jobs created for every 10 lost, which was the highest ratio—meaning lowest share of jobs lost to technology—of any period since 1950 to 1960.”

Reasoning

BLS data (E1, E3) show a workforce of 24 million in 1900 against a population of 76 million, about 31%, matching part (a). The BLS 2015 table (E2) shows about 148.8 million employed and a 157.1 million labor force, so the 142 million figure is within roughly 5% of employment, though the evidence does not directly confirm the 44% population share. On part (c), the only evidence on a creation-to-elimination ratio (E4) estimates about 6 technology-related jobs created for every 10 lost in 2010–2015, which does not support 'several new jobs per eliminated job'. The figures broadly hold, but the evidence does not support the 'several new jobs per eliminated job' ratio; the only ratio estimate [E4] covers technology-related jobs in 2010–2015 and found about 6 created for every 10 lost.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “For every job that was eliminated, several new ones were invented, with the work force growing from 24 million people (31 percent of the population) in 1900 to 142 million (44 percent of the population) in 2015.” (said March 2017). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_ebdb08191488, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ebdb08191488