ClaimsRay Kurzweil

“Yet for every job that was eliminated, we invented several new ones”

Ray Kurzweil, book reviewer in NYT March 2017 How we'll end up merging with our technology (Kurzweil Library / NYT) archived copy

Factual AI, the economy and work

For every job that was eliminated, several new ones were invented, with the work force growing from 24 million people (31 percent of the population) in 1900 to 142 million (44 percent of the population) in 2015.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Parts: the US workforce was (a) about 24 million, roughly 31% of the population, in 1900; (b) about 142 million, roughly 44% of the population, in 2015; and (c) job creation outpaced elimination, with several new jobs for each job eliminated. True: Census and BLS data match (a) and (b) within about 5% for the counts and about 2 percentage points for the shares, and economic evidence supports net creation of several jobs for each one eliminated. Mostly true: the figures match closely, with one minor slip, and job creation clearly outpaced elimination, even if 'several per job' is loosely supported. Mixed: the figures are accurate but the 'several new jobs per eliminated job' ratio is unsupported or contradicted, or vice versa. Mostly false: the figures are substantially off (beyond about 15%), or workforce growth is presented as proof of the ratio when it only reflects population growth. False: the figures are clearly wrong and the job claim is contradicted.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 American Labor in the 20th Century - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 30 January 2003

    “The workforce registered 24 million in 1900 with those aged 10 and above reporting a gainful occupation;1 in 1999 it was 139 million (aged 16 and older).2”
  2. E2 2015 Annual Averages - Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population, 1945 to date U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 10 February 2016

    “| 2015 | 250,801 | 157,130 | 62.7 | 148,834 | 59.3 | 2,422 | 146,411 | 8,296 | 5.3 | 93,671 |”
  3. E3 American Labor in the 20th Century - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 30 January 2003

    “The population at the beginning of the century was 76 million, but approached 280 million by the end of the century.”
  4. E4 False Alarmism: Technological Disruption and the U.S. Labor Market, 1850–2015 Information Technology and Innovation Foundation · 8 May 2017

    “The period from 2010 to 2015 saw approximately 6 technology-related jobs created for every 10 lost, which was the highest ratio—meaning lowest share of jobs lost to technology—of any period since 1950 to 1960.”

Reasoning

BLS data (E1, E3) show a workforce of 24 million in 1900 against a population of 76 million, about 31%, matching part (a). The BLS 2015 table (E2) shows about 148.8 million employed and a 157.1 million labor force, so the 142 million figure is within roughly 5% of employment, though the evidence does not directly confirm the 44% population share. On part (c), the only evidence on a creation-to-elimination ratio (E4) estimates about 6 technology-related jobs created for every 10 lost in 2010–2015, which does not support 'several new jobs per eliminated job'. The figures broadly hold, but the evidence does not support the 'several new jobs per eliminated job' ratio; the only ratio estimate [E4] covers technology-related jobs in 2010–2015 and found about 6 created for every 10 lost.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “For every job that was eliminated, several new ones were invented, with the work force growing from 24 million people (31 percent of the population) in 1900 to 142 million (44 percent of the population) in 2015.” (said March 2017). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_ebdb08191488, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ebdb08191488

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Ray Kurzweil

  1. Resolved true Factual 9 July 2024
    “They were correct that things like the cotton jenny and so on did eliminate lots of these jobs.”

    Inventions like the spinning jenny did eliminate many jobs, as the Luddites claimed.

  2. Mostly false Factual March 2017
    “The average job today pays 11 times as much per hour in constant dollars as it did a century ago.”

    The average job today (as of 2017) pays 11 times as much per hour in constant dollars as it did a century ago.

  3. Mostly false Factual 4 June 2026
    “That was not true a year ago. But that’s true today.”

    Large language models being roughly 50% better than human doctors at diagnosing conditions and recommending treatments was not true a year ago but is true today.

  4. Resolved true Factual 20 January 2026
    “In 1999, I predicted 2029 for AGI and I still predict 2029.”

    Kurzweil predicted in 1999 that AGI would arrive in 2029.

  5. Mixed Factual March 2025
    “AI hallucinations are still there, but are becoming much less frequent.”

    AI hallucinations persist but are becoming much less frequent.

All of them

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