40 claims
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 10 Mar 2025 | Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 11 Nov 2024 | Amodei guessed that within about 10 months AI models would probably get pretty close on typical real-world programming tasks, reaching at least 90%. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 30 Jun 2024 | The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 30 Jun 2024 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2024 | After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2024 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 24 May 2023 | US politicians will cause investors to lose more money as the May 2023 debt ceiling negotiations drag on. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 24 May 2023 | If the market follows the 2011 debt ceiling pattern, US stocks will fall about 12% from their level on 2023-05-24 to the bottom. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 24 May 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 6 Apr 2023 | The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it). Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2023 | The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 6 Nov 2022 | The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 13 Oct 2022 | The situation where several companies can produce good reasoning models will rapidly cease as everyone moves further up the scaling curve. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 14 Dec 2021 | Gary Marcus bet that hybrid (neurosymbolic) AI models would pull ahead in 2022. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Dec 2021 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Musk said he was highly confident Tesla's cars would drive themselves with reliability in excess of a human in 2021. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2021 | Safe Level 5 full self-driving can be achieved using only the current Full Self-Driving computer version 1. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | 2017 | DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved false | Bill Ackman | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Nate Silver | Prediction | 2015 | Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 | Other |
| Resolved false | Nate Silver | Prediction | 2015 | In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 | Other |
| Resolved false | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 20 Aug 2011 | Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 23 Dec 2010 | Traditional lithium-ion bulk batteries will almost certainly not be around in 15 years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Ray Dalio | Prediction | Jun 2010 | The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Oct 2009 | GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Oct 2009 | The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 28 Sep 2007 | Khosla said he believed 50 million acres of US land could supply all US biofuel needs. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Apr 2007 | GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | 25 Sep 2006 | New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 2001 | Within ten years of 2001, biotechnology advances will add more than a year of life expectancy every year. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 2001 | Science and research methods |
“Hillary Clinton will win the Presidency: 60%”
Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 2016 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex)
Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency.
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
What would count as true or false
The claim is judged on its outcome, the 2016 US presidential election; the 60% is his stated confidence, and the proposition is that Clinton wins. TRUE: Hillary Clinton won a majority of the Electoral College in the November 2016 election and became President-elect. FALSE: she did not win the Electoral College (for example she lost to Donald Trump), whatever the popular vote. A popular-vote win without the Electoral College does not satisfy 'win the Presidency', so it counts as FALSE, not mixed. There are no intermediate verdicts unless the outcome was still legally unresolved on 31 December 2016.
Evidence
- 2016 Electoral College Results National Archives (archives.gov) · 5 November 2019
“Winner: 304 | Main Opponent: 227 | Total/Majority: 538/270”
- Clinton wins popular vote by nearly 2.9 million MPR News (based on AP analysis) · 22 December 2016
“With all states voting, Trump finished with 304 votes and Clinton had 227.”
- Who won the 2016 US Presidential Election - Live Results CBS News · 8 November 2016
“Donald Trump won the election with 289 electoral votes.”
Reasoning
The AP-based report dated 22 December 2016 (E2) says that once all states had voted, Trump had 304 electoral votes and Clinton 227. The National Archives record (E1) shows the same split: the winner got 304 of 538 votes, against a majority threshold of 270, and the main opponent got 227. CBS (E3) reported on election night that Trump had won. Clinton did not win a majority of the Electoral College, so under the criteria the prediction resolves false.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_df58220195ea, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_df58220195ea
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.