Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

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28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Combining "triangular" with "light bulb" is a structured imposition of one concept on the other, not a collision: "triangular" is imposed on "light bulb." Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 A lookup table encoding all additions in the hypothetical arithmetic expert system would require eighteen billion billion entries. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 AI capabilities
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 2007 So join us on May 5th at the Qwest for our annual Woodstock for Capitalists. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2007 Evolution is a good teacher, but it’s up to us to apply the lessons wisely. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 2007 And in that world outside the West, questions of religion and the purpose of humanity remained central; Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 2007 These are stellar results, and we thank their CEOs. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 2007 The progress of the Enlightenment has occurred at different rates in different parts of the world. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 2007 Unless we face an irreversible cash drain, we will stick with the News, just as we’ve said that we would. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 2007
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Three color channels are not enough to discriminate between all natural surface reflectances. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Science and research methods
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 2007 Moreover, a direct path forward is prevented by America’s constitutional machinery. Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 2007 The world where everything seems to administer itself is the world of science fiction Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2007 supersystems thinking is only one part of a larger paradigm Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable Eliezer Yudkowsky Not checkable 2007 The human designers of an AI, unlike evolution, will possess the ability to plan ahead for general intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 2007 The challenge of that task is reflected in the difficulty of Strauss’s own writings, which are prohibitively obscurantist to the… Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not checkable Peter Thiel Not checkable 2007 Moreover, there will come an hour when this truth is completely known Peter Thiel · Not checkable · 2007
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Intelligence is an evolutionary advantage because it enables humans to model, predict, and manipulate reality. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Science and research methods
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 2007 Buffett and Ajit Jain reviewed the Equitas facts in spring 2006, 13 years after the last exposed policy was written and after £11.3 billion of claims were paid. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Yudkowsky wrote that he suspected concepts in human cognition do not have independent procedures for satisfaction and imposition. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 2007 MiTek has made 14 acquisitions since Berkshire purchased it in 2001. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jim Cramer Factual 20 Nov 2006 Companies' third-quarter 2006 earnings reports, just released as of 20 November 2006, were strong. Jim Cramer · Factual · 20 Nov 2006 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jim Cramer Not checkable 20 Nov 2006 “This is an incredible time to be invested in Wall Street,” Jim Cramer said on his “RealMoney” radio show Monday. Jim Cramer · Not checkable · 20 Nov 2006
Own records only Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 The Scion funds do not participate in the cash residential mortgage-backed securities market. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 To the extent such replacement of fraudulent loans happened, it was disclosed in servicer reports, and it was not significant. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 Variation in side pocket value comes from the Livedoor position being held in Japanese yen while the fund reports in dollars. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 On a notional basis, 41.6% of Scion's mortgage shorts are on BBB- tranches and 49.8% on BBB tranches. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 The Livedoor, Blue Ocean Re and Symetra side pockets are all carried at cost. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 In a side pocket, exiting investors retain their portion of the side pocket, so remaining investors see no increase in concentration. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 In the early years of a mortgage pool, income is relatively fixed while payouts to investors float based on LIBOR. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Economics and markets
Not researched Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 The stated life of each of Scion's swap contracts is technically 30 years. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 Scion's credit default swaps are cash-settle, pay-as-you-go contracts backed by the full credit of the counterparty. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 The trustee, not the servicer, administers cash flows to investors within a mortgage trust. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 Servicers may generally advance interest payments to a mortgage pool when a mortgage goes delinquent. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Economics and markets
Not researched Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 Prepayment speeds have determined the lifespan of mortgage pools for nearly the entire history of the mortgage-backed securitization market. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Economics and markets
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Oct 2006 Not to mention solar-powered self-replicating probes. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Oct 2006
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Oct 2006 Here is Geoffrey Miller on the Paradox. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Oct 2006
Not researched Michael Burry Factual 5 Oct 2006 The Scion Value Fund lost 17.36% net of all expenses in 2006 through September 30. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Oct 2006 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 5 Oct 2006 During March–September 2005, Burry found most mortgage pools and their subordinate tranches totally unworthy as short candidates. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Oct 2006 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 5 Oct 2006 Through September 2006 the Scion portfolio was down for the year, and its performance was solely due to its credit default swap positions. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Oct 2006 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Oct 2006 Today’s headline reads: Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Oct 2006
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 5 Oct 2006 Burry attempts, within reason, to keep the Scion Value Fund and Scion Qualified Value Fund pari passu in portfolio composition. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Oct 2006 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Oct 2006 They don’t seem interested. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Oct 2006
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Oct 2006 The obvious conclusion is that highly intelligent species do not last very long and are also not very common. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Oct 2006
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Oct 2006 A news headline on 2006-10-05 reported that the Milky Way is teeming with earth-like planets. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Oct 2006 Other
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Oct 2006 They don’t have to visit, they can manipulate star patterns for an advertising campaign or a fundraiser. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Oct 2006
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 5 Oct 2006 Here is my previous post on the Fermi Paradox. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 5 Oct 2006
Own records only Michael Burry Factual Oct 2006 At the end of October 2006, single name corporate CDS were 3.27% of assets under management in the Scion Value Fund and 3.55% in the Scion Qualified Value Fund. Michael Burry · Factual · Oct 2006 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Nouriel Roubini Not checkable 25 Sep 2006 New York might be different, in part because of zoning and other regulations Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2006
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 Existing home sales figures released on 2006-09-25 showed falling home prices. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Not checkable Nouriel Roubini Not checkable 25 Sep 2006 There are thousands of new luxury units coming on the market, and the question is, who will buy them? Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2006
Not checkable Nouriel Roubini Not checkable 25 Sep 2006 A home is a home, and excess supply leads to prices falling. Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2006
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Not checkable Nouriel Roubini Not checkable 25 Sep 2006 I’m bearish on the city. Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2006
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 There is a glut of new condos in Manhattan and it is getting worse. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Not checkable Nouriel Roubini Not checkable 25 Sep 2006 They already own homes, and their demand is constant Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2006
Not checkable Nouriel Roubini Not checkable 25 Sep 2006 I see demand falling and supply going sharply up. Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2006
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 US real home prices will fall 20 to 30 percent over the next three years or so, from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Not checkable Nouriel Roubini Not checkable 25 Sep 2006 It means there was a speculative bubble. And now that bubble is bursting. Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2006
Not checkable Nouriel Roubini Not checkable 25 Sep 2006 the only thing soft and orderly about the comatose states of the housing market will soon be the untertaker carrying the coffin. Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2006
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US housing market will have its biggest bust in decades. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Not checkable Nouriel Roubini Not checkable 25 Sep 2006 There is no economic fundamental—real income, migration, interest rates, demographics—that can explain this. Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2006
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 As of September 2006 there was not yet hard data on exactly what was happening in the market, but home prices were sluggish. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Not checkable Nouriel Roubini Not checkable 25 Sep 2006 If everybody rushes to sell, the glut is going to become worse. Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2006
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 In 2006 returns for many hedge funds are below those of safe Treasury bills. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Not checkable Nouriel Roubini Not checkable 25 Sep 2006 The increase in the value of their home is not making people richer. Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2006
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Not checkable Nouriel Roubini Not checkable 25 Sep 2006 Not only is it over, it’s going to be a nasty fall. Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2006
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 Foreign buyers purchasing US property in dollars will suffer currency capital losses as the dollar weakens against the euro and other currencies. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Not checkable Nouriel Roubini Not checkable 25 Sep 2006 If you’re a buyer, wait, or at least don’t be buying based on an expectation of increasing values. Nouriel Roubini · Not checkable · 25 Sep 2006
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 Speculative housing demand will now disappear because prices are flattening and falling. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 Real US home prices have increased by about 90 percent since 1997. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 US national real home prices may fall 20 to 30 percent. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 Over the 110 years since 1890, rising housing supply has been accompanied by falling prices. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction Sep 2006 US home prices would fall at least 20% and housing starts and demand at least 50% in the worst housing recession since the Great Depression. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jim Cramer Not checkable 15 Aug 2006 There was a time that a rally in the market was a sustainable event, and I didn’t expect a pullback Jim Cramer · Not checkable · 15 Aug 2006
Mostly true Jim Cramer Factual 15 Aug 2006 The stock market has had multiple rallies and selloffs since May 2000, and that pattern is not changing. Jim Cramer · Factual · 15 Aug 2006 Economics and markets
Not checkable Jim Cramer Not checkable 28 Jul 2006 We are not in a regular market, Jim Cramer · Not checkable · 28 Jul 2006
Not checkable Jim Cramer Not checkable 28 Jul 2006 and this needs new rules. Jim Cramer · Not checkable · 28 Jul 2006
Not checkable Jim Cramer Not checkable 28 Jul 2006 A trade is just a trade. Jim Cramer · Not checkable · 28 Jul 2006
Not checkable Jim Cramer Not checkable 28 Jul 2006 People act as if they’re not down because they haven’t taken their money off the table. Jim Cramer · Not checkable · 28 Jul 2006
Not checkable Jim Cramer Not checkable 28 Jul 2006 They rationalize that they’re in the money until they sell regardless of whether they’re profitable or not. Jim Cramer · Not checkable · 28 Jul 2006
Not checkable Jim Cramer Not checkable 28 Jul 2006 People can feel when a trade is going awry, but because of ego, because of pigheadedness, they don’t want to hear the thunder,” he said. Jim Cramer · Not checkable · 28 Jul 2006
Not checkable Jim Cramer Not checkable 28 Jul 2006 If you turn it into an investment, you are overstaying your welcome. Jim Cramer · Not checkable · 28 Jul 2006
Not checkable Jim Cramer Not checkable 28 Jul 2006 This is a market that goes up for periods and down for periods Jim Cramer · Not checkable · 28 Jul 2006
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 10 Apr 2006 perhaps our government is anti-rational, perhaps by the nature of bureaucracy. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 10 Apr 2006
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 10 Apr 2006 In this view, the rumors are orchestrated, we usually do what makes no sense, so that means an attack is coming. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 10 Apr 2006
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 10 Apr 2006 But you might infer the probability of an attack as less likely. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 10 Apr 2006
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Factual 10 Apr 2006 Daniel Drezner offered commentary on the possibility of a US attack on Iran. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Factual 10 Apr 2006 TradeSports implied probabilities of a US or Israeli attack on Iran are higher than they were a few weeks before April 2006. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 10 Apr 2006 Under one view, there is no correlation between rumors and real plans. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 10 Apr 2006
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 10 Apr 2006 Disregard the rumors. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 10 Apr 2006
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 10 Apr 2006 The bottom line: We will not win this game. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 10 Apr 2006
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Factual 10 Apr 2006 On TradeSports around April 2006, the implied probability of a US or Israeli attack on Iran before March 2007 was about 25 percent. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Factual 10 Apr 2006 Matt Yglesias linked to commentators who see a US attack on Iran as imminent. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 10 Apr 2006 But don’t assume a (supposedly) secret signal is better; Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 10 Apr 2006
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 10 Apr 2006 On TradeSports around April 2006, the implied probability of a US or Israeli attack on Iran before December 2006 was about 20 percent. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Not checkable Tyler Cowen Not checkable 10 Apr 2006 Alas, I don’t know a good treatment of this problem, whether theoretical or experimental. Tyler Cowen · Not checkable · 10 Apr 2006
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 10 Apr 2006 US public noise to scare Iran will not work, and the US might then feel it must attack to preserve credibility. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
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Nouriel Roubini

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“Expect even worse news from new home sales later this week.”

Nouriel Roubini, blog author 25 September 2006 The Coming Housing and Economic Crash: My Interview Today with New York Magazine (EconoMonitor)

New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

What would count as true or false

Compare the Census Bureau's new home sales release in the week of 25 September 2006 (August 2006 data) with the NAR existing home sales release of the same week, as first published (this is a prediction about the news that week). Measures: month-over-month change in sales, year-over-year change in sales, and year-over-year change in median price. True: new home sales were weaker than existing home sales on both the monthly and the annual sales change. Mostly true: new home sales had the larger annual decline and also weaker prices, but did not have the weaker monthly change. Mixed: the measures split, with new home sales worse on one main sales measure and better on the other, and price evidence not settling it. Mostly false: new home sales were better on most measures, being worse only on a secondary one such as price. False: new home sales were better than existing home sales on both the monthly and the annual sales change.

Evidence

  1. Buyer's Market? Existing-Home Prices, Sales Fall ABC News · 25 September 2006
    “Transactions were down 12.6 percent compared to the sales pace of a year ago.”
  2. Buyer's Market? Existing-Home Prices, Sales Fall ABC News · 25 September 2006
    “Sales of pre-owned homes fell 0.5 percent in August to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.30 million units -- just about where economists were expecting.”
  3. Buyer's Market? Existing-Home Prices, Sales Fall ABC News · 25 September 2006
    “The median national price for homes sold in August was $225,000, 1.7 percent lower than the level from August 2005 ($229,000).”
  4. Buyer's Market? Existing-Home Prices, Sales Fall ABC News · 25 September 2006
    “We're going to get a look at new-home sales numbers on Wednesday, and we should expect more of the same.”
  5. New-home sales drop 17.4% Inman · 27 September 2006
    “The sales rate for new single-family homes dropped 17.4 percent in August and the median price dropped 1.3 percent compared to August 2005, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported today.”
  6. New-home sales drop 17.4% Inman · 27 September 2006
    “New homes sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.05 million in August, which is 4.1 percent above the revised July rate.”
  7. Existing home sales fall for fifth straight month NBC News (MSNBC) · 25 September 2006
    “The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums dropped 0.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.30 million units. That was the fifth straight monthly decline and left sales 12.6 percent below the pace of a year ago.”
  8. Existing home sales fall for fifth straight month NBC News (MSNBC) · 25 September 2006
    “The median price of a home sold last month fell to $225,000. That was down 2.2 percent from July and down 1.7 percent from August 2005.”

Reasoning

The Census release of 27 September 2006 showed new home sales down 17.4% from August 2005 but up 4.1% from July, with the median price down 1.3% from a year earlier (E5, E6). NAR's existing home release of 25 September showed sales down 0.5% from July and 12.6% from a year earlier, with the median price down 1.7% (E1, E2, E3, E7, E8). New home sales were therefore worse on the annual sales change but better on the monthly change. The price comparison favours new homes and does not settle the split, so under the criteria the verdict is mixed.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data.” (said 25 September 2006). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_933cdcebf15d, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_933cdcebf15d

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.