340 claims · page 3 of 4
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 15 Feb 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 15 Feb 2018 | With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 15 Feb 2018 | Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mixed | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 15 Feb 2018 | Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 | Other |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 15 Feb 2018 | Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 15 Feb 2018 | The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 | Other |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2018 | Ørsted expects to farm down 50% of Hornsea 1 either in H2 2018 or in 2019. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2018 | Claims before 2023 to be the next big thing in AI beyond deep learning will not pan out. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 1 Jan 2018 | In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 | AI, the economy and work |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 1 Jan 2018 | Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that Reddit would not ban r/the_donald by the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | There will not be a 'Truckpocalypse' before 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | AI, the economy and work |
| Mixed | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | The European Union will not collapse by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | Other |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 12 Sep 2017 | The US corporate tax rate in the eventual tax legislation will probably be about 23%. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 12 Sep 2017 | Algorithms will become part of people's lives. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 12 Sep 2017 | The Trump administration's anticipated tax and economic changes will probably be enacted in a watered-down version. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 27 Feb 2017 | Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other |
| Mixed | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | No announcement of a genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for one will occur in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that fewer refugees would be admitted in 2017 than in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other |
| Mostly false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other |
| Mostly false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates in 2017 rather than a full redo of the tax code. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Unless there are substantial unexpected negatives, US corporate margins will be up in 2017. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | 2017 | DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2017 | Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2017 | Other |
| Mostly true | Ørsted | Prediction | 2017 | With 1.2GW capacity, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and DONG Energy's biggest investment ever. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Removing regulations here and there will lower corporate costs in the short term. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice 89 million miles, i.e. over 178 million miles. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Refinement and validation of self-driving software will take much longer than installing the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that there would be no major intifada in Israel in 2016 (over 250 Israeli deaths, excluding a Cast Lead style war). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Assad would remain President of Syria. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than it did in January 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Libya would remain a mess. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Mostly false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Bill Ackman | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2016 | He sees the biggest risk as an extended economic recovery, which he expects to last two more years, that might start to push up wages enough to count. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2016 | Brexit will be very damaging for students and faculty at UK universities, which receive much EU money. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Elon Musk | Prediction | 2016 | A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla because of the plan's vehicle-sharing component. Elon Musk · Prediction · 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 17 Sep 2015 | Bonds will return about 2.25% a year over the next 10 years. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 17 Sep 2015 | The US/global economy will have an economic downturn at some point. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 17 Aug 2015 | AI seems likely to enable much better propaganda and surveillance, which are major tools of autocrats. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 17 Aug 2015 | Climate change will be felt much more strongly in the developing world, hampering its development. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 | Other global risks |
| Mostly false | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 3 Jun 2015 | Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 18 Feb 2015 | Natural language understanding will be the next frontier for Deep Learning. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly false | Bill Gates | Prediction | 2015 | Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly false | Bill Gates | Prediction | 2015 | Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved false | Nate Silver | Prediction | 2015 | Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 | Other |
| Resolved true | Bill Gates | Prediction | 2015 | In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Bill Gates | Prediction | 2015 | If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved false | Nate Silver | Prediction | 2015 | In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 | Other |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 10 Jul 2014 | There will soon be more than 3 billion people with Internet-connected devices. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 10 Jul 2014 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 5 May 2014 | Banks are not likely to step back in and provide meaningful mortgage investment. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 5 May 2014 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2014 | DONG Energy expects business performance EBITDA of DKK 15-17 billion in 2014. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2014 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Ørsted | Prediction | Feb 2014 | DONG Energy expects net investments for 2014-2015 to be around DKK 30 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2014 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 20 Aug 2011 | Within 10 years of 2011, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 20 Aug 2011 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Michael Burry | Prediction | 5 Apr 2011 | Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Michael Burry | Prediction | 5 Apr 2011 | US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Apr 2011 | Agricultural commodity prices are generally expected to fall in 2012 if the weather improves. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2011 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 23 Dec 2010 | The Chevy Volt is expected to ship 40,000 units by 2012. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 23 Dec 2010 | Traditional lithium-ion bulk batteries will almost certainly not be around in 15 years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 23 Dec 2010 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 23 Sep 2010 | The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 23 Sep 2010 | Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | There is a 45% chance the market (S&P 500) rises to over 1400 by October 2011, accompanied by a speculative spin. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | It would take at least seven years of steady reduction for consumer debt to reach a more normal level. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jul 2010 | Developed countries will be lucky to reach 2% annual growth over the roughly seven years from 2009. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jul 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Ray Dalio | Prediction | Jun 2010 | The next US recession will come sooner than the normal roughly five-year interval, because of the size of the debt. Ray Dalio · Prediction · Jun 2010 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Yann LeCun | Prediction | 2010 | In the next decade, a major challenge of computer vision, machine learning and AI will be devising methods that learn good feature hierarchies from unlabeled and labeled data in an integrated fashion. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2010 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Oct 2009 | Grantham said his personal view was that a major China stumble in the next three years or so was maybe only a one in three chance, but was still the most likely important unpleasant surprise of the fundamental economic variety. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Oct 2009 | The rising market will be stopped, by Grantham's blind guess in the first few months of 2010, by a combination of factors. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Oct 2009 | GMO's seven-year forecast return for the S&P 500 is well below 3%, while the high-quality subset is still handsome. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Oct 2009 | The irony may well be that strong economic data in 2010 is likely to be accompanied by a weak stock market. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Oct 2009 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Michael Burry | Prediction | 2008 | Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 2008 | Yudkowsky doubted that a thousandfold increase in AI hardware would buy anything like a thousandfold increase in effective intelligence, while noting that such doubt is not reliable without an analytical calculation. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed | Michael Burry | Prediction | 2008 | Burry said he imagined that shares of most of these financial companies would become very boring before they became attractive again. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Prediction | 2008 | Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 28 Sep 2007 | If solar photovoltaics grew 10,000 percent, they would supply about 4 percent of worldwide electricity. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 28 Sep 2007 | Pricing carbon and requiring carbon capture and sequestration would probably add about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to the cost of coal power, depending on the carbon price. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 | Technology |
| Resolved false | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 28 Sep 2007 | Khosla said he believed 50 million acres of US land could supply all US biofuel needs. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 | Technology |
“Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France: 60%”
Scott Alexander, blogger 6 January 2017 Predictions For 2017 (Slate Star Codex)
Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
The 60% is only Scott's confidence. Only the event counts. True: Marine Le Pen was not elected President of France in the 2017 presidential election (held in April and May 2017). False: she was elected. The outcome is binary, so no middle verdicts apply.
Evidence
- Décision n° 2017-171 PDR du 10 mai 2017 Conseil constitutionnel (France) · 10 May 2017
“M. Emmanuel MACRON élu Président de la République française.”
- Emmanuel Macron defeats Le Pen to become French president BBC News · 7 May 2017
“Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron has decisively won the French presidential election, defeating far-right candidate Marine Le Pen.”
- Emmanuel Macron wins French presidency, routing Le Pen POLITICO Europe · 7 May 2017
“Emmanuel Macron was elected president of France on Sunday, winning almost two-thirds of the vote to beat far-right rival Marine Le Pen in a runoff.”
Reasoning
The Conseil constitutionnel's decision of 10 May 2017 declares Emmanuel Macron elected President of the French Republic (E1). BBC News and POLITICO Europe both reported that Macron beat Marine Le Pen in the May 2017 runoff (E2, E3). So Le Pen was not elected President in the 2017 election, and the prediction resolved true.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017.” (said 6 January 2017). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_8df96f2ff016, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8df96f2ff016
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.