Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

6,750 claims · page 46 of 68

6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Factual 13 May 2019 US consumers are not bearing the full burden of the tariffs in the US-China trade war. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 13 May 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 11 May 2019 With the right investments in health and education, young people at the bottom of the global population pyramid will drive tremendous growth and innovation. Bill Gates · Prediction · 11 May 2019 Other
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 10 May 2019 Melinda Gates asked Bill Gates to introduce her at her Moment of Lift book tour stop in Seattle on 2019-05-10. Bill Gates · Factual · 10 May 2019 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual 30 Apr 2019 Microsoft is partnering with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to bring the Xbox Adaptive Controller to veterans with limited mobility. Satya Nadella · Factual · 30 Apr 2019 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Factual 30 Apr 2019 Most people are not getting access to high-quality behavioral health support. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 30 Apr 2019 Other
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual 29 Apr 2019 Satya Nadella appeared at Dell Tech World with Michael Dell and Pat Gelsinger. Satya Nadella · Factual · 29 Apr 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Factual 21 Apr 2019 Vinod Khosla said he never read the book he referred to as the "ten book", which had been attributed to him, and did not recommend it. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 21 Apr 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 19 Apr 2019 Vinod Khosla said he suspected that the physical exam in medicine will be replaced by something like an upgraded AI-directed ultrasound. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 19 Apr 2019 AI capabilities
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 11 Apr 2019 Amazon has 10 Amazon Go stores in Chicago, San Francisco and Seattle. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 11 Apr 2019 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 11 Apr 2019 Amazon spent several years building Amazon Aurora, a managed MySQL and PostgreSQL-compatible database with durability and availability equal to or better than commercial engines at one-tenth the cost. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 11 Apr 2019 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 11 Apr 2019 AWS is a business with a $30 billion annual run rate as of early 2019 and is growing fast. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 11 Apr 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 11 Apr 2019 Amazon represents a low single-digit percentage of the retail market, and much larger retailers exist in every country where it operates. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 11 Apr 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual 11 Apr 2019 Amazon's first-party business grew at a compound annual rate of 25% from 1999 to 2018, from $1.6 billion to $117 billion. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 11 Apr 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Satya Nadella Factual 9 Apr 2019 Microsoft is teaming up with Mastercard, Workday and the public sector to support the next generation of cybersecurity leaders. Satya Nadella · Factual · 9 Apr 2019 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual Apr 2019 Third-party sellers' share of physical gross merchandise sales on Amazon has grown from 3% of the total to 58%. Jeff Bezos · Factual · Apr 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual Apr 2019 Amazon began developing the Fire phone and the Echo around the same time. Jeff Bezos · Factual · Apr 2019 Technology
Unresolvable Jeff Bezos Factual Apr 2019 Amazon invested in and offered independent sellers selling tools such as inventory management, payments, shipment tracking, reporting and cross-border selling. Jeff Bezos · Factual · Apr 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual Apr 2019 Third-party sales on Amazon grew from $0.1 billion to $160 billion over the period discussed, a compound annual growth rate of 52%. Jeff Bezos · Factual · Apr 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual Apr 2019 Since the first-generation Echo, customers have purchased more than 100 million Alexa-enabled devices. Jeff Bezos · Factual · Apr 2019 Technology
Mostly true Jeff Bezos Factual Apr 2019 Amazon represents a low single-digit percentage of the global retail market, with much larger retailers in every country where it operates. Jeff Bezos · Factual · Apr 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 19 Mar 2019 Computer architects are building special-purpose chips for runtime use of trained neural networks to compensate for power and performance limits. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 19 Mar 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 19 Mar 2019 As of 2019, the computation needed to train many current neural networks can only be provided by very large companies with very large budgets. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 19 Mar 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 19 Mar 2019 The push to make everything learnable is raising the cost of AI beyond what individuals or even large university departments can afford. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 19 Mar 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 19 Mar 2019 Brooks says his review, including this comment, is seventy-six words shorter than Sutton's post. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 19 Mar 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Factual 19 Mar 2019 At a two-day Deep Learning workshop at the National Academy of Science in the week before 2019-03-19, the view favouring task-specialised computation structures was more in vogue than pure learning with massive compute. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 19 Mar 2019 AI capabilities
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 19 Mar 2019 Moore's Law is slowing, and some computer architects report the doubling time of computation on a single chip moving from one year to twenty years. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 19 Mar 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Factual 19 Mar 2019 Today's machine learning data sets can contain billions of examples, whereas a human may need only a handful to learn the same thing. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 19 Mar 2019 AI capabilities
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 8 Mar 2019 Money donated to Grameen America is repeatedly lent and repaid, so each $1 donated results in roughly $12 lent to people over 10 years. Ray Dalio · Factual · 8 Mar 2019 Other
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 7 Mar 2019 2020 will be "the year of the ocean." Ray Dalio · Prediction · 7 Mar 2019 Other
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 7 Mar 2019 Ray Dalio took part in the Economist World Ocean Initiative's summit in March 2019. Ray Dalio · Factual · 7 Mar 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Factual 3 Mar 2019 A film of the first dive to 1,000m in Antarctica won Best Micro Movie at the World Wildlife Day Film Showcase. Ray Dalio · Factual · 3 Mar 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 16 Feb 2019 Average burn rates of early-stage startups rose very rapidly over the years before February 2019. Sam Altman · Factual · 16 Feb 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Gary Marcus Factual 16 Feb 2019 The system has no idea that a unicorn has one horn and asserts that it has four. Gary Marcus · Factual · 16 Feb 2019 AI capabilities
Mixed Sam Altman Factual 16 Feb 2019 There has been a massive surge in the availability of cheap seed funding for startups. Sam Altman · Factual · 16 Feb 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 16 Feb 2019 OpenAI's new system is state of the art on some question-answering tests but is no match for humans on story understanding. Gary Marcus · Factual · 16 Feb 2019 AI capabilities
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 14 Feb 2019 OpenAI has produced an unsupervised language model that can do many tasks. Sam Altman · Factual · 14 Feb 2019 AI capabilities
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 7 Feb 2019 Jeff Bezos has written a post about developments with the National Enquirer and its parent company, AMI. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 7 Feb 2019 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 29 Jan 2019 Y Combinator is hosting a new conference (announced January 2019). Sam Altman · Factual · 29 Jan 2019 Field building and careers
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 25 Jan 2019 If Congress members went unpaid during shutdowns like federal workers, the US would no longer have government shutdowns. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 25 Jan 2019 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 24 Jan 2019 Helping people as much as possible over a long period led to most of Sam Altman's best career opportunities and three of his four best investments. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Jan 2019 Field building and careers
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 24 Jan 2019 Sam Altman has not met a slow-moving person who is very successful. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Jan 2019 Field building and careers
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 24 Jan 2019 Sam Altman has never met a very successful pessimistic person. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Jan 2019 Field building and careers
Mostly false Sam Altman Factual 24 Jan 2019 Work stamina seems to be one of the biggest predictors of long-term success. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Jan 2019 Field building and careers
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 24 Jan 2019 Sam Altman has observed thousands of founders and thought a lot about what it takes to make a huge amount of money or create something important. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Jan 2019 Field building and careers
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 24 Jan 2019 The most successful people Sam Altman knows believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Jan 2019 Field building and careers
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 24 Jan 2019 Most highly successful people have been really right about the future at least once when people thought they were wrong. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Jan 2019 Field building and careers
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 24 Jan 2019 With technology, more and more businesses will have true network effects and extreme scalability. Sam Altman · Prediction · 24 Jan 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 22 Jan 2019 Of his 2018 predictions at 80%, Scott Alexander got 10 right and 3 wrong, a score of 77%. Scott Alexander · Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 22 Jan 2019 Of his 2018 predictions at 60%, Scott Alexander got 8 right and 7 wrong, a score of 53%. Scott Alexander · Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 22 Jan 2019 Of his 2018 predictions at 95%, Scott Alexander got 6 right and 2 wrong, a score of 75%. Scott Alexander · Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Scott Alexander Promise 22 Jan 2019 Scott Alexander will post his 2019 predictions later in the week of 22 January 2019. Scott Alexander · Promise · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 22 Jan 2019 At the 95% confidence level, Scott Alexander's 2018 predictions came out only 75% correct. Scott Alexander · Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 22 Jan 2019 Scott Alexander made predictions in February 2018 for the next five years. Scott Alexander · Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 22 Jan 2019 Cryptocurrency crashed during 2018, after Bitcoin was around $15,000 when Scott Alexander made his 2018 predictions. Scott Alexander · Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Scott Alexander Factual 22 Jan 2019 Scott Alexander made many correlated cryptocurrency predictions for 2018, which therefore scored badly. Scott Alexander · Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Gary Marcus Factual 17 Jan 2019 According to Giuliani's disclosure on 2019-01-17, every tweet and statement like the one referenced was a lie, and Trump's campaign colluded. Gary Marcus · Factual · 17 Jan 2019 Other
Mostly false Gary Marcus Factual 17 Jan 2019 A linked report confirms that Donald Trump took talking points from Vladimir Putin. Gary Marcus · Factual · 17 Jan 2019 Other
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 15 Jan 2019 William Barr may become the person who most subverts American democracy, more than Donald Trump. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 15 Jan 2019 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 9 Jan 2019 Sam Altman spoke with Vinod Khosla in an interview or conversation published in January 2019. Sam Altman · Factual · 9 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Factual 9 Jan 2019 The Kindle edition of The Algebraic Mind: Integrating Connectionism and Cognitive Science is available as of 2019-01-09. Gary Marcus · Factual · 9 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Sam Altman Prediction 5 Jan 2019 By 2025, AGI will feel within reach to many people in the AI industry. Sam Altman · Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Sam Altman Prediction 5 Jan 2019 By 2025, net-gain nuclear fusion will be working at prototype scale. Sam Altman · Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 Technology
Unresolvable Sam Altman Factual 5 Jan 2019 As of January 2019, Altman said portfolio 1 in his bet was probably close to satisfying the bet's condition. Sam Altman · Factual · 5 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual 5 Jan 2019 Sam Altman made a bet almost four years before January 2019. Sam Altman · Factual · 5 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 5 Jan 2019 By 2025, gene editing will have cured at least one major disease. Sam Altman · Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 Technology
Resolved true Jeff Bezos Factual 2 Jan 2019 Mike George, former Alexa VP and long-time Amazon employee, has agreed to lead the Day 1 Academies Fund. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 2 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Gary Marcus Factual 2 Jan 2019 Gary Marcus posted "Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal" on 2018-01-02, asking whether deep learning might be approaching a wall and be just one tool among many needed for AGI. Gary Marcus · Factual · 2 Jan 2019 AI capabilities
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 In Hayek's account, knowledge is consolidated via prices and arbitrageurs, who trade products, services and financial securities, not binary bets. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 2019 In computer vision, the trend is to apply ConvNets to an entire image to detect, segment and recognize objects of any size at any location. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2019 AI capabilities
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 Morgan Stanley correctly predicted the financial crisis but lost $10 billion on its hedge. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 2019 Current model-free RL methods would likely need millions of hours of practice, with numerous accidents, for an autonomous car to learn to drive. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2019 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 2019 Training a video predictor with a least-square criterion yields blurry frames that average all possible futures. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2019 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 2019 The deep learning approach to language would never work, as argued in a chapter of Rebooting AI. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 The difference between binary and vanilla payoffs is well known in mathematical finance but does not seem to have been passed on to the decision-theory literature. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 The demands on DL-specific hardware will undoubtedly increase. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 Value at Risk is not a coherent risk measure because it violates subadditivity. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) satisfies the coherence (subadditivity) bound. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 Financial regulators compute the recovery rate as the unconditional expected value of collateral, without conditioning on the default event. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 Chances are that the bulk of computation in future deep learning systems will still consist primarily of convolutions. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 The Brier score is favored because it does not allow arbitrage and requires perfect probabilistic calibration. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 Programmable resistor technology may become sufficiently compact, reliable, durable and configurable for deep learning applications. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 XIV, a volatility-linked exchange traded note, went bust in February 2018 after a sudden jump in volatility, while having been able to "predict" volatility correctly. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 For a continuous random variable X with CDF F_X, the variable U = F_X(X) is uniform between 0 and 1 absent additional information. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 Augmented/virtual reality and telepresence applications will require extremely low-power ASICs for DL inference. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2019 The ConvNet architecture was loosely inspired by the ventral pathway in the visual cortex. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2019 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 2019 ReLU nonlinearities and dropout regularization enabled purely supervised backprop training of very deep networks with a dozen layers. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2019 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 Taleb states that one can further verify the Brier score has thinner tails than the Gaussian, as its kurtosis is lower than 3. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Science and research methods
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 Most natural and socio-economic variables are continuous and have no compact support, so no exact upper bound is known. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Factual 2019 Dataflow stream processors have become a popular design for ConvNet accelerators, such as the Eyeriss project. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 The ultimate solution to DL power constraints may be exploiting sparse activations, perhaps with event-based computation. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 What the AI hardware and software communities produce over the next few years will shape AI research for the coming decades. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 Self-supervised latent-variable predictive models will be the centerpiece of intelligent systems based on model-predictive control and model-based reinforcement learning, e.g. for robotic manipulation and autonomous driving. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI capabilities
Mostly false Yann LeCun Factual 2019 Users upload 2 to 3 billion photos on Facebook every day. Yann LeCun · Factual · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly false Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 Since the 1960s, practically all economic and informational variables have been shown to belong to the D2 class, or at least the intermediate subexponential class, which includes the lognormal. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 The expected value of collateral conditional on default is often far lower than its unconditional expectation. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 Usage of graph neural networks will increase for a wide variety of applications likely to violate the assumptions of current deep learning hardware. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 New high-performance hardware will be required to enable progress towards deep learning systems trained to acquire vast amounts of background knowledge and a form of common sense. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 Payoff terms of the form g(x) = 1 - x² are found in a typical contract called a variance swap. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Economics and markets
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 As DL is used for high-level cognitive tasks, memory modules will become commonplace and very large, requiring hardware support. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Factual 2019 The Pareto 80/20 distribution has tail index α = 1.16, so the adjusted tail probability is more than 7 times the naive one. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2019 Science and research methods
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Scott Alexander

Open its page

Factual Their own work or organisation

“Of 95% predictions, I got 6 right and 2 wrong, for a score of 75%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 22 January 2019 2018 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex)

Of his 2018 predictions at 95%, Scott Alexander got 6 right and 2 wrong, a score of 75%.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

What would count as true or false

Judged against Scott Alexander's January 2019 post grading his 2018 predictions, counting the predictions he made at 95% confidence and how each resolved. True: there were 8 such predictions, 6 right and 2 wrong (75%). Mostly true: the score is about 75% but one count is off by one, for example from a disputed grading. False: the counts are clearly different, for example 7 right and 1 wrong. Any correction he published to the grading governs.

Evidence

  1. Predictions For 2018 Slate Star Codex · 6 February 2018 Own record
    “1. Donald Trump remains president at end of year: 95%”
  2. Predictions For 2018 Slate Star Codex · 6 February 2018 Own record
    “17. Bitcoin is higher than $5,000 at end of year: 95%”
  3. Predictions For 2018 Slate Star Codex · 6 February 2018 Own record
    “98. [Secret prediction]: 95%”

Reasoning

E1–E3 come from the February 2018 post where the predictions were made. They show three of the predictions set at 95% (Trump remains president, Bitcoin above $5,000, and a secret prediction). None of the evidence is from the January 2019 grading post, and none says how many 95% predictions there were or how each one resolved. So the 6 right, 2 wrong (75%) tally cannot be checked against the resolution criteria.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Of his 2018 predictions at 95%, Scott Alexander got 6 right and 2 wrong, a score of 75%.” (said 22 January 2019). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_6ce9a881f67d, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6ce9a881f67d

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.