| Mixed |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
3 Jan 2023 |
Tech-related stocks, as long-duration assets, are hit by rising interest rates more than shorter-duration assets.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 3 Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Nouriel Roubini | Prediction |
3 Jan 2023 |
Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further.
Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
3 Jan 2023 |
Corporate debt and shadow bank lending to companies built up over the last 10 to 15 years, and became even more extreme after Covid-19.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 3 Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
3 Jan 2023 |
Fifty percent of the world's semiconductors and 80% of high-end semiconductors are produced in Taiwan.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 3 Jan 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2023 |
If US electric vehicle sales keep growing at 68% per year, electric cars would be 28% of new US car sales in 2025.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Prediction |
1 Jan 2023 |
Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.
Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
1 Jan 2023 |
NASA's current plan is for Artemis 2 to take astronauts to lunar orbit in May 2024, followed by Artemis 3 landing two astronauts on the Moon in 2025.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2023 |
Technology |
| Resolved true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
1 Jan 2023 |
As of January 2023 Brooks believed the number of Tesla robo-taxis on the road was still zero.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2023 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Rodney Brooks | Factual |
1 Jan 2023 |
In essence, ChatGPT picks the most likely next word given the preceding words, whether from the user's prompt or its own generated output.
Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2023 |
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Jeremy Grantham | Factual |
Jan 2023 |
Administrations aim to achieve this objective, and to do so they stimulate the economy 12 to 18 months earlier because the economy is large, complicated and has plenty of inertia.
Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Jeremy Grantham | Factual |
Jan 2023 |
In 1974 the US market turned up, after a 62% real decline over two years, exactly as the first Fed rate cut took place.
Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Factual |
Jan 2023 |
GMO's Equity Dislocation strategy, long the cheapest U.S. stocks and short an equal amount of the most overpriced, delivered a double-digit positive return in 2022.
Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2023 |
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2023 |
The January 2023 rally may well not outlive January.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved false |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
Jan 2023 |
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Factual |
Jan 2023 |
Every US recession in the past 50 years was preceded by a negative yield spread; there were no recessions without one.
Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
2023 |
When a population is divided by any demographic variable, such as race, class, sex, ethnic group or religion, the group means are never the same.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2023 |
The exceedance probability PK corresponds to the zeroeth moment and is always thin-tailed.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Resolved true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2023 |
The exceedance probability PK, as a random variable bounded between 0 and 1, necessarily has thin tails with finite mean, variance and all moments.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Balaji Srinivasan | Factual |
2023 |
Srinivasan conceded a bet and paid out about a million dollars, saying he had "burned a million to tell you they're printing trillions."
Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2023 |
If tail probability PK does not hedge tail expectation GK, then skill at predicting PK provides no information on GK.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Mixed |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2023 |
Binary options on financial instruments proved of little economic value and are not considered an investment in the U.S. and the European Union.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2023 |
The paper responds to Tetlock et al. (2022). (2022).
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2023 |
Binary options are banned by most corresponding regulators in the U.S. and the European Union because they are considered gambling devices.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nassim Taleb | Factual |
2023 |
A sum of such bets, whose probabilities are modelled with a Uniform or Beta distribution, becomes Gaussian rapidly.
Nassim Taleb · Factual · 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly false |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
2023 |
Large language models like GPT do not have a model of the world.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
2023 |
Pinker was among those who argued that predicting the next word is not how language works.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
2023 |
Large language models' intelligence almost certainly does not work the same way as human intelligence.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
2023 |
Current large language models are trained on a fixed dataset frozen as of 2021 and have no knowledge of events after 2021.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
2023 |
Whether rationality and intelligence are dissociable in a human population is an unresolved controversy in the cognitive psychology literature.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Mixed |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
2023 |
A lot of artificial intelligence has been deployed toward dubious goals such as propaganda, disinformation, phishing scams and manipulating people.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true |
Steven Pinker | Prediction |
30 Dec 2022 |
ChatGPT will not put Google Search out of business in the near term.
Steven Pinker · Prediction · 30 Dec 2022 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
27 Dec 2022 |
A new big-data study by a team including Simon Baron-Cohen found females on average outperform males on a 'theory of mind' test across 57 countries.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 27 Dec 2022 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4 will still be reckless and hard to control, making a significant number of stupid errors.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4's natural language output still won't be reliably usable as input to downstream programs such as databases or virtual assistants.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
25 Dec 2022 |
ChatGPT regularly makes things up, and a fair bit of what it says is untrue.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4 will definitely seem smarter than its predecessors, but its internal architecture will remain problematic.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4 will not be trustworthy and complete enough to give reliable medical advice.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
25 Dec 2022 |
ChatGPT might sound like the Star Trek computer, but for now it still cannot be trusted.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4 will be a very large, powerful system (a 'monster').
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
With GPT-4, fluent hallucinations will still be common and easily induced, escalating the risk of LLMs being used to create misinformation.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4 may be better at faking term papers, but if it follows the same playbook as its predecessors, it still won't really understand the world, and its flaws will eventually show.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4 will blow people's minds when released.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
Marcus suspected that GPT-4's release would follow a pattern of immense buzz, then scientific scrutiny, then recognition that many problems remain.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
If GPT-4 is architecturally essentially the same as GPT-3, it can be expected to be unable to construct internal models of how the world works and, in consequence, unable to understand things at an abstract level.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
AI alignment between human wants and machine behavior will remain a critical unsolved problem, with GPT-4 unable to reliably follow shared human values.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
25 Dec 2022 |
ChatGPT can write about anything but is easily confused.
Gary Marcus · Factual · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Prediction |
25 Dec 2022 |
GPT-4 will remain a pastiche generator and useful for brainstorming and first drafts, but not trustworthy general intelligence.
Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
24 Dec 2022 |
The lost Carl Sagan lecture 'Science and Civil Liberties' was discovered and edited by Steven Pinker and Harvey Silverglate and appeared in Quillette's 2022 Editors' Choice.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 24 Dec 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Steven Pinker | Factual |
21 Dec 2022 |
Stanford's new 'Harmful Language' guide flags as ableist language that trivializes the experiences of people living with mental health conditions.
Steven Pinker · Factual · 21 Dec 2022 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true |
Satya Nadella | Factual |
12 Dec 2022 |
Microsoft and London Stock Exchange Group have a strategic partnership combining LSEG's industry position with the Microsoft Cloud to deliver next-generation financial markets services.
Satya Nadella · Factual · 12 Dec 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Gary Marcus | Factual |
Dec 2022 |
AI-generated misinformation became increasingly widespread, as Marcus warned in December 2022, but its effects have so far been less than he feared.
Gary Marcus · Factual · Dec 2022 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Satya Nadella | Factual |
21 Nov 2022 |
Local groups are using Microsoft's cloud to connect large quantities of surplus food with people in need amid rising food insecurity.
Satya Nadella · Factual · 21 Nov 2022 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true |
Peter Thiel | Factual |
9 Nov 2022 |
China has about four times the population of the United States.
Peter Thiel · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Satya Nadella | Factual |
9 Nov 2022 |
At GitHub Universe in November 2022, GitHub announced Copilot for business and Codespaces for all.
Satya Nadella · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Peter Thiel | Factual |
9 Nov 2022 |
California is not a poor state.
Peter Thiel · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Peter Thiel | Factual |
9 Nov 2022 |
The average California government worker is paid twice as much as the average private sector worker in California.
Peter Thiel · Factual · 9 Nov 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved false |
Nouriel Roubini | Prediction |
6 Nov 2022 |
The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
6 Nov 2022 |
During the 2008 Great Financial Crisis the S&P 500 fell cumulatively by about 50%.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved false |
Nouriel Roubini | Prediction |
6 Nov 2022 |
History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy.
Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
6 Nov 2022 |
The top 10% of Americans hold 80% of US equity, the top 1% about 50%, and the bottom 80% hold almost none.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved false |
Nouriel Roubini | Prediction |
6 Nov 2022 |
The coming US recession will not be short and shallow.
Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
6 Nov 2022 |
Providing $1,000 per month to every American would cost the US about 20% of GDP.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
6 Nov 2022 |
In a typical short and shallow recession the S&P 500 usually falls by at least 30%.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 6 Nov 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
28 Oct 2022 |
The 1970s stagflation was not a debt crisis and did not involve a geopolitical depression.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Nouriel Roubini | Prediction |
28 Oct 2022 |
Central banks, starting with the Bank of England, will wimp out on tightening, causing inflation to go above 2%.
Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
28 Oct 2022 |
25% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from livestock.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 |
Other global risks |
| Resolved true |
Nouriel Roubini | Prediction |
28 Oct 2022 |
UK mortgage rates may double because of reckless fiscal policy and debt build-up.
Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
28 Oct 2022 |
In the 1970s there was a negative stagflationary shock with inflation followed by recession.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
28 Oct 2022 |
Iran is becoming nuclear, which Israel regards as an existential threat it cannot accept.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 |
Other global risks |
| Mixed |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
28 Oct 2022 |
Until now there was an insolvency problem but no liquidity problem to trigger it, because interest rates were so low.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
28 Oct 2022 |
The West is already experiencing asymmetric cyber warfare with China, Russia and Korea.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
28 Oct 2022 |
Climate change causes zoonotic disease, and pandemics result from destruction of animal ecosystems.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
28 Oct 2022 |
China is not a declining power and has an authoritarian regime built around state capital.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 28 Oct 2022 |
Other global risks |
| Mostly true |
Satya Nadella | Factual |
27 Oct 2022 |
Satya Nadella's annual letter to Microsoft shareholders reflects on connecting what technology can do with what the world needs.
Satya Nadella · Factual · 27 Oct 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Nouriel Roubini | Factual |
25 Oct 2022 |
The era of the Great Moderation, with okay growth and low 2% inflation, is over.
Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Oct 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Factual |
13 Oct 2022 |
Because reasoning-focused RL is new, the amount all AI developers spend on the RL training stage is still small, so the field is early on its scaling curve.
Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true |
Dario Amodei | Factual |
13 Oct 2022 |
The current rate of algorithmic curve shift is maybe about 4x per year.
Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed |
Dario Amodei | Factual |
13 Oct 2022 |
DeepSeek was not substantially more resource-constrained than US AI companies, and export controls were not the main factor causing its innovation.
Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved false |
Dario Amodei | Prediction |
13 Oct 2022 |
The situation where several companies can produce good reasoning models will rapidly cease as everyone moves further up the scaling curve.
Dario Amodei · Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Factual |
13 Oct 2022 |
Dario Amodei and his co-founders were among the first to document, while at OpenAI, that scaling up AI training smoothly improves results across a range of cognitive tasks.
Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Dario Amodei | Factual |
13 Oct 2022 |
Improvements in training cost efficiency typically lead AI companies to spend more, not less, on training models.
Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Dario Amodei | Factual |
13 Oct 2022 |
Amodei said he thinks a fair statement is that DeepSeek produced a model close in performance to US models 7-10 months older, at a good deal less cost but not near the ratios people have suggested.
Dario Amodei · Factual · 13 Oct 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Satya Nadella | Factual |
12 Oct 2022 |
Satya Nadella gave a keynote at Microsoft Ignite on 2022-10-12.
Satya Nadella · Factual · 12 Oct 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Satya Nadella | Promise |
12 Oct 2022 |
Microsoft is bringing Microsoft Teams Rooms to Cisco meeting room devices.
Satya Nadella · Promise · 12 Oct 2022 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Bill Gates | Factual |
21 Sep 2022 |
Programs supported by the Global Fund have reduced the death toll from AIDS, TB and malaria by 50%, saving more than 50 million lives.
Bill Gates · Factual · 21 Sep 2022 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Bill Gates | Factual |
20 Sep 2022 |
The Goalkeepers community is meeting in person for the first time since 2019.
Bill Gates · Factual · 20 Sep 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Bill Gates | Factual |
15 Sep 2022 |
Seven years before 2022, world leaders agreed to 17 ambitious goals to reduce inequality by 2030.
Bill Gates · Factual · 15 Sep 2022 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Jeremy Grantham | Factual |
31 Aug 2022 |
A bear market rally is one of the common features of historical superbubbles.
Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Jeremy Grantham | Prediction |
31 Aug 2022 |
Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come.
Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Factual |
31 Aug 2022 |
Few superbubbles exist in history to study, and they share clear common features.
Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Jeremy Grantham | Factual |
31 Aug 2022 |
The summer 2022 stock rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern of the bear market rally that Grantham describes.
Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 31 Aug 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Jeff Bezos | Factual |
28 Aug 2022 |
Jeff Bezos says his first job was at the burger chain shown in the post (McDonald's).
Jeff Bezos · Factual · 28 Aug 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Bill Gates | Factual |
25 Aug 2022 |
There is more public support than ever before for taking big steps to avoid a climate disaster.
Bill Gates · Factual · 25 Aug 2022 |
Other global risks |
| Resolved true |
Bill Gates | Factual |
23 Aug 2022 |
In 2021 Bill Gates laid out a plan for eliminating greenhouse gas emissions.
Bill Gates · Factual · 23 Aug 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Bill Gates | Factual |
18 Aug 2022 |
Dr. Helene Gayle and Ashish Dhawan have decided to join the Gates Foundation's board.
Bill Gates · Factual · 18 Aug 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Jeff Bezos | Factual |
6 Aug 2022 |
Tom Alberg was an early investor in Amazon and served on Amazon's board for 23 years.
Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Aug 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
2 Aug 2022 |
As of 2 August 2022, Visa had not responded publicly to the allegations about facilitating child trafficking on MindGeek/PornHub sites.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 2 Aug 2022 |
Other |
| Mixed |
Bill Ackman | Factual |
31 Jul 2022 |
The Pershing Square Foundation is not involved in this case but has supported organizations working to stop human trafficking and image-based abuse.
Bill Ackman · Factual · 31 Jul 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |