2,653 claims · page 13 of 27
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 29 Jul 2022 | Bond and stock markets rallied substantially after Powell said on Wednesday that Fed rates were at neutral (2.25–2.5%). Bill Ackman · Factual · 29 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 22 Jul 2022 | A new trailer for The Rings of Power was released at Comic-Con on 2022-07-22. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 22 Jul 2022 | Other |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 14 Jul 2022 | Ackman said that in response to the June 2022 CPI print, short-term fed funds futures moved upward, implying a peak fed funds rate of 3.68% by December 2022, then cuts to 2.9% by January 2024. Bill Ackman · Factual · 14 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 14 Jul 2022 | The first full-length trailer for The Rings of Power was released by 2022-07-14. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 14 Jul 2022 | Other |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 5 Jul 2022 | There had been 309 mass shootings in the US year-to-date as of 5 July 2022, about 12 per week. Bill Ackman · Factual · 5 Jul 2022 | Other |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | In the late 1990s, and probably the early 2000s, people (including Bill Gates) talked about a 'convergence device'. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | Inflation affects African Americans, Latinos, Asians and whites equally. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | Interest rates declined dramatically over the two weeks before 4 July 2022. Bill Ackman · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 4 Jul 2022 | Sergey Brin remarked many years ago that staring down at a phone is emasculating. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 4 Jul 2022 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 30 Jun 2022 | Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Jim Cramer | Factual | 30 Jun 2022 | The first half of 2022 was the worst first half for the stock market since 1970. Jim Cramer · Factual · 30 Jun 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 30 Jun 2022 | If Republicans take control of the House in 2023, they are pretty likely to hold COVID panels or investigations. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Delivered on time | Nate Silver | Promise | 29 Jun 2022 | Nate Silver's midterms forecast model will be published soon. Nate Silver · Promise · 29 Jun 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Jim Cramer | Factual | 28 Jun 2022 | On the 2022-06-28 Mad Money episode, Jim Cramer interviews Adam Selipsky, CEO of Amazon Web Services. Jim Cramer · Factual · 28 Jun 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Factual | 24 Jun 2022 | Public trust in the US Supreme Court is way down in polls as of June 2022. Nate Silver · Factual · 24 Jun 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Jun 2022 | Humans do not explicitly pursue inclusive genetic fitness, although natural selection optimized on that simple loss function. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Jun 2022 | MIRI tried and failed to find a coherent formula for an agent that would let itself be shut down without actively trying to get shut down. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Jun 2022 | There is no known way to use loss functions, sensory inputs or reward inputs to make a cognitive system's optimization point at particular latent things in the environment. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Jun 2022 | Under the current optimization paradigm there is no general method known to get particular inner properties into an AI system or verify they are present. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 10 Jun 2022 | Human raters make systematic, regular, compactly describable and predictable errors. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 10 Jun 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 9 Jun 2022 | Democrats could hold the Senate in the 2022 midterms if GOP candidates are subpar in a couple of key states or Democrats win the closest races. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Prediction | 9 Jun 2022 | Democrats holding the House in the 2022 midterms would require an unlikely change in the national environment. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mixed | Nate Silver | Factual | 6 Jun 2022 | Senator Susan Collins voted against Trump's position about one-third of the time, including voting to impeach him, and has voted with Biden about one-third of the time. Nate Silver · Factual · 6 Jun 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Mixed | Nate Silver | Factual | 27 May 2022 | Forgiving all student loan debt is quite unpopular with the public in polls. Nate Silver · Factual · 27 May 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 26 May 2022 | The prizes received by Geoffrey Hinton and by Demis Hassabis and John Jumper were very much for AI. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 26 May 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 24 May 2022 | Gaming is the biggest digital entertainment category. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 24 May 2022 | About 20 years had passed since Microsoft launched Xbox, as of 2022. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 24 May 2022 | Microsoft found that a direct connection to one's immediate manager was the biggest factor in effective onboarding. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 24 May 2022 | Nadella spent most of his 32-year professional career in middle-management roles. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 24 May 2022 | Microsoft drew on Carol Dweck's growth mindset work, which helped it move from 'know-it-alls' to 'learn-it-alls'. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Satya Nadella | Factual | 24 May 2022 | Microsoft's Flight Simulator, a PC game predating Xbox, is as old as Microsoft. Satya Nadella · Factual · 24 May 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Nate Silver | Factual | 21 May 2022 | Joe Biden's approval rating never had a spike. Nate Silver · Factual · 21 May 2022 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 29 Apr 2022 | Anthropic announced a new fundraising round on 2022-04-29. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 29 Apr 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | GiveWell | Prediction | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell likely will not be able to share a full response to all contest entries, due to limited research capacity. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | GiveWell | Promise | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell will announce contest winners by December 15, 2022. GiveWell · Promise · 6 Apr 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | GiveWell | Factual | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell is launching a contest for critiques of its cost-effectiveness analyses. GiveWell · Factual · 6 Apr 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | GiveWell | Factual | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell makes its cost-effectiveness analyses publicly available. GiveWell · Factual · 6 Apr 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Delivered on time | GiveWell | Promise | 6 Apr 2022 | GiveWell will award $20,000 to the first-place entry, $10,000 to the runner-up and $5,000 to the honorable mention in its contest. GiveWell · Promise · 6 Apr 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Resolved true | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Apr 2022 | The US government has a plan to create new vaccines within a few months to three months. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Apr 2022 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | The original virtual reality devices that Zuckerberg referred to as the ones "we had" did not have hand presence. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | Heat dissipation is one of the biggest limiting factors for processors running in smart glasses. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | A lot of research shows that people's social, economic and other opportunities are generally pretty anchored to where they physically are. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Mark Zuckerberg | Promise | 24 Mar 2022 | Meta's next VR headset version will include eye sensors enabling realistic eye contact in virtual reality. Mark Zuckerberg · Promise · 24 Mar 2022 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | When Mark Zuckerberg went to college, he planned to major in classics. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Other |
| Resolved true | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 24 Mar 2022 | Workrooms is a VR product Meta built for collaboration. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 24 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Mar 2022 | Tyler Cowen published a Conversation with Lydia Davis. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 14 Mar 2022 | In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 14 Mar 2022 | The probability shown in the chart in the post was almost monotonically decreasing, lower each day than the day before. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 14 Mar 2022 | A team described as some of the best superforecasters in the world won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by a large margin, described as around twice as good as the next-best team in relative Brier score. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 14 Mar 2022 | Early in the Russia-Ukraine war prediction markets gave Ukraine poor odds, and by March 2022 they were much more optimistic about Ukraine. Scott Alexander · Factual · 14 Mar 2022 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 9 Mar 2022 | Tyler Cowen published a Conversation with Sam Bankman-Fried. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 9 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Daniela Amodei said she thinks some of "our employees" identify as effective altruists, which she said means they are especially worried about the potential for long-term harms from AI. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Field building and careers |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | The goal of NIST's AI Risk Management Framework is to develop more monitoring tools for AI risk and its management. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly false | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Shareholders cannot sue Anthropic for failing to maximize financial returns when those conflict with its public benefit. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | As of 2022 there is no required disclosure of whether a person is interacting with an AI system or a human. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Daniela Amodei said Dario Amodei was getting a PhD in a technical field at the time and so was not working directly on the interest area she described, which she connected with her start in international development. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic's PBC status legally ensures that, if profit and public benefit conflict, public benefit prevails. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | As a public benefit corporation, Anthropic has more legal protection from shareholders if it fails to maximize financial interests in favor of its public benefit mission. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic conducts interpretability research aimed at seeing inside language models and understanding their workings. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Public benefit corporations are fairly similar to C corporations, a standard corporate entity. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Stripe had about 40 people when Daniela Amodei joined. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic is currently focused on research and development rather than deployment of products for revenue. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | People use online therapists, and sometimes the advice is backed by an AI system. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic is hiring a lot of people as of March 2022. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 4 Mar 2022 | Anthropic chose to incorporate as a public benefit corporation when it was founded. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 4 Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Gary Marcus | Factual | Mar 2022 | Gary Marcus's March 2022 article argued pure scaling would not solve hallucinations or abstraction and concluded there are serious holes in the scaling argument. Gary Marcus · Factual · Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | Mar 2022 | In March 2022 Gary Marcus published an article arguing that deep learning is hitting a wall. Gary Marcus · Factual · Mar 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 23 Feb 2022 | Tyler Cowen published a multi-part Conversation with Chuck Klosterman, longer than usual. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 23 Feb 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 12 Feb 2022 | TechCrunch interviewed Tyler Cowen about crypto. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 12 Feb 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Factual | 27 Jan 2022 | As of January 2022, Tesla is seeing alleviation of supply chain constraints in almost every area. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Musk said his personal guess was that "we" would achieve full self-driving in 2022, with a safety level significantly greater than the present. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Guidance | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Elon Musk | Promise | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla will start delivering Texas-built Model Ys with structural battery pack and 4680 cells after final certification, which should be fairly soon. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | In 2022 supply chain will continue to be the fundamental limiter of output across all Tesla factories. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Guidance | 27 Jan 2022 | If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Batteries will probably not be the limiting factor in Cybertruck production. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Factual | 27 Jan 2022 | Many of the supply chain shortages affecting Tesla are alleviating as of January 2022. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jan 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Elon Musk | Promise | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla will not introduce new vehicle models in 2022. Elon Musk · Promise · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla still expects to be partly or primarily chip-limited in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Tesla's energy business will grow in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jan 2022 | Musk said he would be shocked if Tesla did not achieve full self-driving safer than a human in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 | AI capabilities |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 26 Jan 2022 | Investors reacted negatively to Netflix's recent quarterly subscriber growth and management's short-term guidance, creating an opportunity to buy at an attractive valuation. Bill Ackman · Factual · 26 Jan 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Members of Anthropic's founding group had previously done a lot of safety research together at different organizations. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | As of 2022 Anthropic pursues its mission primarily through generative model research and AI safety research. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Other researchers and engineers have been using Anthropic's released interpretability tools and watching its videos. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Science and research methods |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Daniela Amodei said she thinks part of what Anthropic's AI safety research is seeing is that different sized models exhibit different safety issues. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | A few jobs before Anthropic, Daniela Amodei worked at the tech startup Stripe. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Most of Pershing Square's portfolio companies use their free cash flow to repurchase their own shares. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic's internal scientists red-team its models by asking them questions to find unwanted behaviors. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2022 | Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | PSH's stock currently trades at a 33.9% discount to NAV. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Daniela Amodei joined the startup Stripe when it had about 40 people. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Daniela Amodei joined Stripe when it was not much bigger than Anthropic is now. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 2022 | She said she hoped, and thought, that in the next few years the AI industry would see something closer to standard-setting organizations, industry groups or trade associations setting out what a safe model looks like. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | As of 2022 there are no clear guidelines for AI labs on how to avoid advancing race dynamics or do the right thing on safety. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Daniela Amodei began her career in international development. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | As of 2022 there are no clear guidelines for AI developers on how to avoid advancing race dynamics or do the right thing on safety. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 2022 | Daniela Amodei said she hoped, and thought it likely, that in the next few years AI would see something closer to standard-setting organizations, industry groups or trade associations setting out what a safe model looks like or how to move systems towards being safer. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 2022 | AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true | Daniela Amodei | Factual | 2022 | Anthropic does societal impacts research on the short- and medium-term effects of language models. Daniela Amodei · Factual · 2022 | AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2022 | Pershing Square's limited activist short selling, two high-profile engagements, generated enormous media attention. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2022 | Their own work or organisation |
“Midterms model coming soon; think one of the topline numbers might surprise people a bit.”
Nate Silver, writing on X 29 June 2022 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2022-06-29 (X)
Nate Silver's midterms forecast model will be published soon.
Delivered on time The record shows it happened or was so.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The claim is that Silver's 2022 midterms forecast model would be published 'soon' after 29 June 2022. For this test, 'soon' means within about four weeks (by 31 July 2022). The model must be a public forecast of the 2022 US midterm elections (House and/or Senate) that Silver built or led, whether at FiveThirtyEight or elsewhere. True: it went public on or before 31 July 2022. Mostly true: it went public in early August 2022 (by about 15 August), or by 31 July but covering only one chamber when both were implied. Mostly false: it went public later than that but before the 8 November 2022 election. False: no Silver midterms model was published before the election, or a dated report shows the model was cancelled. Whether any topline number 'surprised people' is not tested.
Evidence
- Interactive Maps for FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast - 270toWin 270toWin · 5 July 2022
“FiveThirtyEight has recently published its 2022 election forecasts for Senate, House, and governor. We've created interactive maps for each.”
- The 2022 Forecast Is Live And ‘Model Talk’ Returns! : FiveThirtyEight : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive Internet Archive (hosting a FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode) · 30 June 2022 Own record
“The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/) is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties.”
- Nate Silver's Blog, page 14 Goodreads (republishing Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight articles) · 29 July 2022 Own record
“That’s up from 47 percent from forecast launch on June 30.”
Reasoning
E1 is an independent 270toWin article dated 5 July 2022. It reports that FiveThirtyEight had "recently published its 2022 election forecasts for Senate, House, and governor." E2, a FiveThirtyEight podcast listing dated 30 June 2022, says the midterms forecast was live. E3 refers to the forecast's launch on June 30. Together they show the House and Senate model went public well before the 31 July 2022 cutoff.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Nate Silver's midterms forecast model will be published soon.” (said 29 June 2022). Verdict: delivered on time. Reliability API, claim c_104636c5e02f, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_104636c5e02f
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.