Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,653 claims · page 22 of 27

2,653 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 Two days after Pershing Square began building its yuan position, China did a 2% surprise devaluation that substantially increased the cost of the options it had intended to keep buying. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved false Bill Ackman Prediction Jan 2016 Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 China and Saudi Arabia have continued to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to defend their currency pegs. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Jan 2016 Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2016 Grantham had earlier warned of trouble if China quickly slowed its demand growth for minerals. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square largely abandoned its strategy of shorting the credit of highly rated, highly leveraged companies as a hedge in 2009. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Bill Ackman Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square purchased puts on the Saudi Riyal to hedge against a continued decline in energy prices. Bill Ackman · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2016 Mining stocks are the only group with a negative correlation to the rest of a portfolio over 10-year periods and very low correlation over 5 years. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual Jan 2016 By the time China's demand growth for metals and coal stopped, miners had spent an unprecedented $1.25 trillion on expansion. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Factual 2016 From late 2002 into 2006 the Fed raised rates by as much as 430 basis points as the economy recovered. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 2016 The t-distribution in FiveThirtyEight's model mostly makes a difference for very low-probability events. Nate Silver · Factual · 2016 Science and research methods
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Factual 2016 Fed chairs Yellen, Bernanke and Greenspan overtly bragged about their success in driving asset prices, particularly stocks, higher. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 2016 In 2012, Obama beat his polling by 2 or 3 percentage points in almost every swing state. Nate Silver · Factual · 2016 Science and research methods
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 2016 FiveThirtyEight's model is based on a combination of state and national polls. Nate Silver · Factual · 2016 Science and research methods
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 2016 FiveThirtyEight's polls-only model gives Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning and its polls-plus model gives her 83 percent. Nate Silver · Factual · 2016 Science and research methods
Resolved true Jensen Huang Factual 2016 The AI supercomputer Huang delivered to Elon Musk and OpenAI in 2016 was the first of its kind Nvidia ever shipped. Jensen Huang · Factual · 2016 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 He sees the biggest risk as an extended economic recovery, which he expects to last two more years, that might start to push up wages enough to count. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 Brexit will be very damaging for students and faculty at UK universities, which receive much EU money. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 2016 A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla because of the plan's vehicle-sharing component. Elon Musk · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 17 Sep 2015 Interest rates are going to zero. Ray Dalio · Factual · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 17 Sep 2015 Bonds will return about 2.25% a year over the next 10 years. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 17 Sep 2015 Falling spreads mean asset prices have gone up. Ray Dalio · Factual · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 17 Sep 2015 The US/global economy will have an economic downturn at some point. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Mostly true Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 AI seems likely to enable much better propaganda and surveillance, which are major tools of autocrats. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Dario Amodei Prediction 17 Aug 2015 Climate change will be felt much more strongly in the developing world, hampering its development. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 Other global risks
Mixed Dario Amodei Factual 17 Aug 2015 Poorly implemented services are currently a major driver of cynicism about government. Dario Amodei · Factual · 17 Aug 2015 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 17 Aug 2015 The impact of nuclear power, supersonic flight and elevators has been substantially reduced by regulations or misplaced fears despite working well technically. Dario Amodei · Factual · 17 Aug 2015 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 17 Aug 2015 Diseases have been eradicated and many countries have gone from poor to rich, through decisions that exhibit high returns to intelligence. Dario Amodei · Factual · 17 Aug 2015 Economics and markets
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 17 Aug 2015 Although drug development is overly cumbersome, once developed drugs are generally successfully deployed and used. Dario Amodei · Factual · 17 Aug 2015 Economics and markets
Mixed Dario Amodei Factual 17 Aug 2015 Human economic planners made the decisions that led to several East Asian economies' late-20th-century growth by pulling a few key levers such as export-led industrial policy, not by directly controlling whole economies. Dario Amodei · Factual · 17 Aug 2015 Economics and markets
Mixed Dario Amodei Factual 17 Aug 2015 Smallpox was fully eliminated in the 1970s, and polio and guinea worm are nearly eradicated with fewer than 100 cases per year. Dario Amodei · Factual · 17 Aug 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Prediction 3 Jun 2015 Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 3 Jun 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Yann LeCun Factual 27 May 2015 Deep learning methods have dramatically improved the state of the art in speech recognition, visual object recognition and object detection. Yann LeCun · Factual · 27 May 2015 AI capabilities
Mixed Yann LeCun Factual 27 May 2015 Deep learning methods have dramatically improved the state of the art in many other domains such as drug discovery and genomics. Yann LeCun · Factual · 27 May 2015 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 27 May 2015 Deep learning uses the backpropagation algorithm to indicate how a machine should change the internal parameters that compute each layer's representation from the previous layer's. Yann LeCun · Factual · 27 May 2015 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 27 May 2015 The acknowledgements, dated 2015, state that the authors Y.L. and Y.B. are fellows of the Canadian Institute For Advanced Research (CIFAR). Yann LeCun · Factual · 27 May 2015 Field building and careers
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 18 May 2015 A study of inter-arrival times between tail conflict events finds that no particular trend can be asserted. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 18 May 2015 The real mean of war casualties calculated by the dual method is considerably larger than the sample mean. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 18 May 2015 The paper applies extreme value theory methods to the dual distribution and derives its tail properties. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 18 May 2015 Naive observation of conflict data severely underestimates the tail risks of conflicts. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 18 May 2015 Potential war casualties are bounded by the world population. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 May 2015 Other global risks
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 18 May 2015 The paper analyzes the robustness of its results to errors in historical reports, accounting for historians' unreliability and missing data. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 18 May 2015 The paper examines statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years and develops techniques for handling incomplete and unreliable historical data. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Nassim Taleb Factual 18 May 2015 The paper's statistical results are at variance with prevailing claims of a "long peace", i.e. that violence has been declining over time. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 18 May 2015 Science and research methods
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 18 Feb 2015 Deep Learning systems augmented with a memory module are starting to show impressive results in natural language processing. Yann LeCun · Factual · 18 Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 18 Feb 2015 The brain is much better than current artificial models at unsupervised learning. Yann LeCun · Factual · 18 Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 18 Feb 2015 Shallow learning systems have one or two layers, while deep learning systems typically have five to 20 layers. Yann LeCun · Factual · 18 Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 18 Feb 2015 The system would probably not be more accurate, but it can potentially recognize people among hundreds of millions. Yann LeCun · Factual · 18 Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 18 Feb 2015 A typical Deep Learning system is like a box with 500 million knobs, 1,000 light bulbs and 10 million training images. Yann LeCun · Factual · 18 Feb 2015 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 18 Feb 2015 Natural language understanding will be the next frontier for Deep Learning. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 18 Feb 2015 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Yann LeCun Factual 18 Feb 2015 A trained classifier may also correctly classify cars and dogs it has never seen before. Yann LeCun · Factual · 18 Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual Feb 2015 Forty years before 2015, there was Pong. Sam Altman · Factual · Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual Feb 2015 Many respected neocortex researchers believe there is effectively one algorithm for all intelligence. Sam Altman · Factual · Feb 2015 Science and research methods
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual Feb 2015 Human brains do not look very different from chimp brains yet produce wildly different capabilities. Sam Altman · Factual · Feb 2015 Science and research methods
Resolved true Sam Altman Factual Feb 2015 Most machine intelligence development involves a fitness function that the program tries to optimize. Sam Altman · Factual · Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Mostly false Sam Altman Factual Feb 2015 Altman wrote that in the previous 40 years there had been little progress on the parts of machine intelligence that seem really hard, such as learning and creativity. Sam Altman · Factual · Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Mostly true Sam Altman Factual Feb 2015 Basic search with a lot of compute power has worked better than expected in machine intelligence. Sam Altman · Factual · Feb 2015 AI capabilities
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 2015 Donald Trump's overall favorability ratings in 2015 are about 30 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable, and have not improved. Nate Silver · Factual · 2015 Other
Mostly true GiveWell Factual 2015 In 2014, GiveWell tracked $27.8 million in money moved to its recommended charities. GiveWell · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2015 NATO has a mobile unit that can deploy very rapidly. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Other global risks
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2015 The UN agreed on a set of development goals once before, in 2000, and the authors call it one of the best ideas for development either of them has ever seen; they say it focused the world on key measures of basics such as good health and a chance to get an education. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2015 Small loans have helped millions of people but have reached only a small fraction of the poorest, with relatively high interest rates. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2015 Bill and Melinda Gates wrote the 2015 Annual Letter about what the future holds. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2015 At the Ebola outbreak there was no group of epidemiologists ready to deploy to identify the disease and its spread. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 2015 With 75 percent of Republicans not voting for Trump, a candidate can still hold the plurality so long as the "no" vote is divided among a sufficient number of alternatives. Nate Silver · Factual · 2015 Other
Resolved true Bill Gates Factual 2015 Some digital financial innovation is happening first in poor countries. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Technology
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2015 There was no medical team ready to deploy to the Ebola outbreak. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Bill Gates Factual 2015 The 2014 Ebola outbreak did not reach many urban areas. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2015 Ebola does not spread through the air, and by the time people are contagious most are too sick to move about. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mixed Bill Gates Factual 2015 Regulations in most countries still limit digital banking, preventing innovators from entering. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Economics and markets
Mostly false Bill Gates Prediction 2015 Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Resolved false Nate Silver Prediction 2015 Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 Other
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 2015 In presidential primaries, endorsements and party elite support tend to be more reliable indicators of eventual success than early polls. Nate Silver · Factual · 2015 Other
Mixed Bill Gates Factual 2015 The last germ-game simulation in the United States was in 2001 and it did not go well. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Bill Gates Factual 2015 The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics, but not to do the other outbreak-related tasks the speaker had described. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 2015 Of Lieberman, Clinton, Giuliani and Perry, only Clinton came close to winning the nomination. Nate Silver · Factual · 2015 Other
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 2015 Even this far out, national primary polls have some correlation with outcomes: a candidate near the top is a somewhat better bet to win the nomination than one near the bottom. Nate Silver · Factual · 2015 Science and research methods
Mostly false Bill Gates Factual 2015 During the Ebola outbreak there was no epidemic response system at all, rather than one that worked poorly. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mixed Bill Gates Factual 2015 Traditional banks cannot afford to serve the poor because of their costs. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true GiveWell Factual 2015 In 2014, GiveWell recommended and Good Ventures made two grants: $250,000 to Evidence Action and about $34,000 to IDinsight. GiveWell · Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Bill Gates Prediction 2015 If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Resolved false Nate Silver Prediction 2015 In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Nate Silver · Prediction · 2015 Other
Mostly false Bill Gates Factual 2015 About 15 years before 2015, online education amounted to little more than filming a university lecturer and recording. Bill Gates · Factual · 2015 Technology
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 24 Dec 2014 Traditional portfolio construction in modern financial theory has operated under at least one of two assumptions: constraints derived from a utility function and/or a fully known multivariate distribution of asset returns. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 24 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nassim Taleb Factual 24 Dec 2014 Under the paper's construction, the barbell payoff (maximal certainty/low risk on one side, maximum uncertainty on the other) emerges naturally. Nassim Taleb · Factual · 24 Dec 2014 Economics and markets
Delivered on time Rodney Brooks Promise 16 Dec 2014 Starting in 2015, Rethink Robotics will provide APIs allowing developers to improve Baxter. Rodney Brooks · Promise · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 Labour costs were rising and the era of infinitely cheap labour was coming to an end. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 Brooks first presented his 1986 layered-architecture work in France. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Rodney Brooks Factual 16 Dec 2014 The first industrial robots were installed in 1961, when a computer filled an entire room. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 16 Dec 2014 Technology
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 A recent Implicit Association Test study using political parties found unconscious partisan biases were about 1.5 times as strong as unconscious racial biases. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Science and research methods
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 The Nazis' outgroup was the almost-identical German Jews rather than the culturally distant Japanese. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 Estimates of the genetic contribution to political association range from 0.4 to 0.6. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Science and research methods
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 Heritability of attitudes toward gay rights is estimated at 0.3 to 0.5, slightly higher than the heritability of homosexuality. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Science and research methods
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 Researchers have studied belief congruence theory, that belief differences matter more than demographics in forming in-groups and outgroups, for decades. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 30 Sep 2014 Scott Alexander is a psychiatrist by profession. Scott Alexander · Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Bill Ackman Factual 21 Jul 2014 Herbalife's so-called nutritional clubs are not places where people get together to talk about losing weight. Bill Ackman · Factual · 21 Jul 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 10 Jul 2014 Gaming is the single biggest digital life category in a mobile-first world, measured in both time and money spent. Satya Nadella · Factual · 10 Jul 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly true Satya Nadella Factual 10 Jul 2014 Microsoft was founded on the belief that technology creates opportunities for people and organizations, by putting a PC on every desk and in every home. Satya Nadella · Factual · 10 Jul 2014 Their own work or organisation
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Ray Dalio

Open its page

Factual Economics and markets

“Because that cycle of being able to raise -- you have interest rates going to zero.”

Ray Dalio, interviewed on Bloomberg 17 September 2015 Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Interview on Bloomberg (Market Folly)

Interest rates are going to zero.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge said mostly true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 17 September 2015, read as being about US policy rates (and other major central banks' rates). True: the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range was 0-0.25% (with other major central bank rates at or near zero) on that date. Mostly true: policy rates were at or near zero but some major rates were slightly above zero. Mostly false: only some relevant rates were near zero, and key rates in context were clearly above it. False: the relevant policy rates were well above zero.

Evidence

  1. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 17 September 2015
    “To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate.”
  2. US interest rates left unchanged by Federal Reserve BBC · 17 September 2015
    “Nine members of its key policymaking committee voted to hold the federal funds rate target at 0 to 0.25%.”
  3. Bank Rate held at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £375 billion Bank of England · 5 March 2015
    “The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee at its meeting today voted to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%.”

Reasoning

The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement of 17 September 2015 [E1] and BBC's same-day report [E2] confirm that the federal funds target range was held at 0 to 0.25% on the date of the claim. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 0.5% in March 2015 [E3], which is close to zero, although that item does not give the September rate directly. The US policy rate, which is the main rate in context, was at zero as the criteria require.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “Interest rates are going to zero.” (said 17 September 2015). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_0fe5fe5b1932, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0fe5fe5b1932

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.