ClaimsRay Dalio

“Because that cycle of being able to raise -- you have interest rates going to zero.”

Ray Dalio, interviewed on Bloomberg 17 September 2015 Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Interview on Bloomberg (Market Folly) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

Interest rates are going to zero.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge said mostly true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 17 September 2015, read as being about US policy rates (and other major central banks' rates). True: the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range was 0-0.25% (with other major central bank rates at or near zero) on that date. Mostly true: policy rates were at or near zero but some major rates were slightly above zero. Mostly false: only some relevant rates were near zero, and key rates in context were clearly above it. False: the relevant policy rates were well above zero.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 17 September 2015

    “To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate.”
  2. E2 US interest rates left unchanged by Federal Reserve BBC · 17 September 2015

    “Nine members of its key policymaking committee voted to hold the federal funds rate target at 0 to 0.25%.”
  3. E3 Bank Rate held at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £375 billion Bank of England · 5 March 2015

    “The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee at its meeting today voted to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%.”

Reasoning

The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement of 17 September 2015 [E1] and BBC's same-day report [E2] confirm that the federal funds target range was held at 0 to 0.25% on the date of the claim. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 0.5% in March 2015 [E3], which is close to zero, although that item does not give the September rate directly. The US policy rate, which is the main rate in context, was at zero as the criteria require.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “Interest rates are going to zero.” (said 17 September 2015). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_0fe5fe5b1932, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0fe5fe5b1932

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Ray Dalio, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Ray Dalio

  1. Mostly false Factual 9 May 2026
    “That has been true through all history.”

    Throughout history, including before World War II, societies have generally had rising living standards and become richer.

  2. Mostly true Factual 9 May 2026
    “So when we look at history, we see that in all such periods, all the fiat currencies go down, okay?”

    Dalio said that history shows all fiat currencies go down in all such periods, which followed the interviewer's reference to times "where they can print the money".

  3. Mostly true Factual 9 May 2026
    “It takes in about $5 trillion, so it spends 40% more than it takes in.”

    The US government takes in about $5 trillion and spends about $7 trillion, about 40% more than it takes in.

  4. Mostly true Factual 9 May 2026
    “you could still have financial problems, like the breakdown of the monetary system in 1971, okay?”

    The monetary system broke down in 1971 while the United States was still a dominant power.

  5. Resolved true Factual 9 May 2026
    “one-third of our debt is held by foreigners, so that’s a different thing.”

    About one-third of US debt is held by foreigners.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.