Interest rates are going to zero.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge said mostly true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 17 September 2015, read as being about US policy rates (and other major central banks' rates). True: the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range was 0-0.25% (with other major central bank rates at or near zero) on that date. Mostly true: policy rates were at or near zero but some major rates were slightly above zero. Mostly false: only some relevant rates were near zero, and key rates in context were clearly above it. False: the relevant policy rates were well above zero.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 17 September 2015
“To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate.”
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E2 US interest rates left unchanged by Federal Reserve BBC · 17 September 2015
“Nine members of its key policymaking committee voted to hold the federal funds rate target at 0 to 0.25%.”
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E3 Bank Rate held at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £375 billion Bank of England · 5 March 2015
“The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee at its meeting today voted to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%.”
Reasoning
The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement of 17 September 2015 [E1] and BBC's same-day report [E2] confirm that the federal funds target range was held at 0 to 0.25% on the date of the claim. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 0.5% in March 2015 [E3], which is close to zero, although that item does not give the September rate directly. The US policy rate, which is the main rate in context, was at zero as the criteria require.
Cite this claim
Ray Dalio, “Interest rates are going to zero.” (said 17 September 2015). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_0fe5fe5b1932, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0fe5fe5b1932
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Ray Dalio
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Mostly false
“That has been true through all history.”
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Mostly true
“So when we look at history, we see that in all such periods, all the fiat currencies go down, okay?”
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Mostly true
“It takes in about $5 trillion, so it spends 40% more than it takes in.”
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Mostly true
“you could still have financial problems, like the breakdown of the monetary system in 1971, okay?”
The monetary system broke down in 1971 while the United States was still a dominant power.
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Resolved true
“one-third of our debt is held by foreigners, so that’s a different thing.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.