The fall in US national housing prices in 2006 will not be a one-year blip; prices will keep falling beyond 2006.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Test: did US national house prices keep falling beyond 2006, rather than recovering in 2007? Use a national house price index (S&P/Case-Shiller US National, FHFA/OFHEO). True: the index kept declining through 2007 and beyond (a multi-year decline). Mostly true: it declined in 2007 but the decline ended soon after, or one index showed a brief flat spell. Mixed: indices disagree. Mostly false: prices were roughly flat in 2007. False: national prices recovered in 2007.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Table Data - S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices
“| 2007-12-01 | 174.340 |”
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E2 Table Data - S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices
“| 2008-12-01 | 153.617 |”
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E3 4q07 House Price Index report Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO) · 26 February 2008
“prices declined 0.2 percent in December across the U.S., on average.”
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E4 U.S. Monthly House Price Index Estimates 1.1 Percent Price Decline from September to October Federal Housing Finance Agency · 23 December 2008
“ending in October, U.S. prices fell 7.5 percent.”
Reasoning
The evidence shows a 0.2 percent monthly fall in December 2007 [E3], and a fall in the Case-Shiller index from 174.340 in December 2007 to 153.617 in December 2008 [E1][E2], along with a 7.5 percent fall over a period ending in October 2008 [E4]. It does not give a 2006 baseline or a full-year 2007 change, and it has no data after 2008. So it does not show whether prices kept falling through 2007 or how long the decline lasted, which the criteria need to decide between true and the other outcomes.
Cite this claim
Michael Burry, “The fall in US national housing prices in 2006 will not be a one-year blip; prices will keep falling beyond 2006.” (said 2006). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_f833dd75ae95, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f833dd75ae95
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Michael Burry
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Mostly false
“All personal income taxes collected in a year do not so much as add up to $1 trillion dollars, and yet by 2020 interest expense on our national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion.”
US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020.
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Resolved true
“Today, I expect the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term”
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Mixed
“I imagine the shares of these companies, in most cases, will become very boring before they become attractive again.”
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Mostly true
“Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now in the cards.”
Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions.
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Resolved true
“The S&P 500 could easily finish the year in the negative, dragging many investment funds – too many of which are crowded into the same “value-but-for-a-dire-economy” trades – down with it.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.