Taleb said the only important thing was that he had protected his clients.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2009. True: credible records show that clients of Universa Investments (Taleb's affiliated fund or strategy) were protected during the 2008 crash, i.e. the tail-hedging funds made large gains or offset losses in 2008 as intended. Mostly true: the protection was largely delivered, but returns varied by fund or the hedge only partly offset losses. Mixed: the results were mixed across clients or funds. Mostly false: there were modest gains that did not meaningfully protect clients, or Taleb's own role was minimal and the claim overstates it. False: clients lost money in the crisis on the strategy, or the funds did not provide protection.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 October Pain Was 'Black Swan' Gain - WSJ.com Wall Street Journal (Dow Jones), by Scott Patterson · 3 November 2008 Own record
“Separate funds in Universa's so-called Black Swan Protection Protocol were up by a range of 65% to 115% in October, according to a person close to the fund.”
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E2 October Pain Was 'Black Swan' Gain - WSJ.com Wall Street Journal (Dow Jones), by Scott Patterson · 3 November 2008 Own record
“While Mr. Taleb frequently consults with Universa's traders, the Santa Monica, Calif., fund is owned and managed by Mark Spitznagel”
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E3 The Stars of The Recession Newsweek · 10 January 2009
“Last year proved him wildly right, and by exploiting this mental block, Universa's investors doubled their money.”
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E4 Black swan manager returning 23%, anticipating bear market InvestmentNews (Bloomberg News reprint) · 24 October 2011
“Universa returned about 115 percent to investors in 2008, according to a person familiar with the matter.”
Reasoning
Newsweek (E3), an independent source, reported in January 2009 that Universa's investors doubled their money in 2008. A later Bloomberg report (E4) put Universa's 2008 return at about 115%. The WSJ (E1) reported that separate Black Swan Protection Protocol funds gained between 65% and 115% in October 2008, so the protection was delivered but returns varied by fund. The same WSJ article (E2) says Spitznagel owned and managed the fund and Taleb consulted with its traders, so "I protected my clients" somewhat overstates Taleb's direct role.
Cite this claim
Nassim Taleb, “Taleb said the only important thing was that he had protected his clients.” (said 2009). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_f247bdefdd10, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f247bdefdd10
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.