ClaimsNassim Taleb

“We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing 1)”

Taleb and co-authors, paper authors 2023 The Probability Conflation: A Reply (arXiv) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

The paper responds to Tetlock et al. (2022). (2022).

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

True: a 2023 paper by Taleb (with or without co-authors) presents itself explicitly as a response or reply to Tetlock et al. (2022). Mostly true: it is such a reply but is dated slightly differently (for example posted online in 2022 and published in 2023), or the cited Tetlock paper's year differs by one year. Mostly false: the paper discusses Tetlock's work but is not framed as a response to that 2022 paper. False: no such response paper exists.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 The probability conflation: A reply to Tetlock et al. ScienceDirect (Elsevier), International Journal of Forecasting · April 2023

    “Abstract We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing (1) how expert judgment fails to reflect tail risk and (2) the lack of compatibility between forecasting tournaments and tail-risk assessment methods (such as extreme value theory).”

  2. E2 The probability conflation: A reply to Tetlock et al. ScienceDirect (Elsevier), International Journal of Forecasting · April 2023

    “Tetlock, Lu, and Mellers (2022), in their criticism of claims in a paper titled “On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables” in this journal (Taleb, Bar-Yam, & Cirillo, 2022)”

  3. E3 Official Research Biography of Nassim Nicholas Taleb fooledbyrandomness.com (Taleb's own site) · 21 February 2026 Own record

    “2023 N N Taleb, R Richman, M Carreira, J. Sharpe, The Probability Conflation: A Reply to Tetlock , International Journal of Forecasting [PROBABILITY, RISK]”

Reasoning

The International Journal of Forecasting published "The probability conflation: A reply to Tetlock et al." in April 2023. Its abstract opens: "We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022)" (E1). The paper's introduction names the paper it answers as Tetlock, Lu, and Mellers (2022) (E2). Taleb's CV also lists it as a 2023 paper he co-authored (E3), so a 2023 paper by Taleb explicitly presents itself as a reply to Tetlock et al. (2022).

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “The paper responds to Tetlock et al. (2022). (2022).” (said 2023). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_702ad73c9245, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_702ad73c9245

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Nassim Taleb

  1. Mostly true Factual 21 September 2025
    “adds 3 chapters and an appendix on Max Entropy distributions (includes Tsallis Entropy).”

    The 3rd edition of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails is available and adds 3 chapters and an appendix on Max Entropy distributions including Tsallis Entropy.

  2. Resolved true Factual 18 March 2024
    “Just to remind people that I have NOTHING to do with "nassimtaleb. org"”

    Nassim Taleb has no connection to the website "nassimtaleb.org".

  3. Resolved true Factual November 2021
    “I am writing these lines from the vantage point of my specialty of decision making under uncertainty, not that of theology”

    The author's specialty is decision making under uncertainty, not theology.

  4. Mostly true Factual 29 December 2020
    “This part in Fooled by Randomness was inspired by the psychology of depositors in #Lebanon who enjoyed steady AND high returns.”

    A part of Fooled by Randomness was inspired by the psychology of Lebanese depositors who enjoyed steady and high returns.

  5. Mostly true Factual 30 December 2019
    “My Lecture in Lebanese "From Ponzi to Localism" at the USJ, on Leb TV, during the riots.”

    In 2019 Taleb gave a lecture in Lebanese, "From Ponzi to Localism", at USJ, broadcast on Lebanese TV during the riots.

All of them

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