A part of Fooled by Randomness was inspired by the psychology of Lebanese depositors who enjoyed steady and high returns.

This is a statement about Taleb's own inspiration, judged as of 2020-12-29. True: Fooled by Randomness contains a passage about steady returns combined with hidden blow-up risk, and there is no evidence contradicting Taleb's account that Lebanese depositors inspired it. Supporting evidence would be earlier statements by Taleb, or text in the book that refers to Lebanon, Lebanese banking or similar depositors. Mostly true: the passage exists and the inspiration is plausible, but the book itself frames it with a different example (e.g. a fictional trader), with Lebanon given only as background. Mixed: the inspiration cannot be corroborated beyond Taleb's assertion and conflicts with his earlier accounts. Mostly false: earlier statements by Taleb credit a clearly different origin. False: no such passage exists in the book.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 A Lebanese Technology Transfer nntaleb.substack.com (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) · 7 August 2026 Own record

   “By a curious technology transfer, yours truly generalized from Lebanon and applied overseas.”

2. E2 A Lebanese Technology Transfer nntaleb.substack.com (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) · 7 August 2026 Own record

   “Depositors were making steady income from the carry trade and fooled by it”

3. E3 A Lebanese Technology Transfer nntaleb.substack.com (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) · 7 August 2026 Own record

   “I gave a talk sponsored by the Lebanese Central Bank at AUB in 1998 called “unsafe at any speed” (a Ralph Nader title), causing me to receive all manner of insults for the following twenty years”

4. E4 Full text of "Fooled By Randomness Nassim Taleb" Internet Archive (third-party digitised copy) · 23 October 2016 Own record

   “He is as conservative a trader as one can be in such a business. In the past he has had good years and less than good years - but virtually no truly “bad” years.”

A digitised copy of Fooled by Randomness (E4) has a passage about a trader with steady results and "virtually no truly 'bad' years". That matches the steady-returns theme, but the excerpt tells it through a trader, and the excerpts fetched never mention Lebanon. Taleb's later Substack post (E1–E3) says Lebanese depositors were "fooled" by steady income from the carry trade. He also says he gave a talk called "unsafe at any speed" at AUB in 1998, sponsored by the Lebanese Central Bank, and that he "generalized from Lebanon" [E1][E3]. Nothing in the evidence contradicts his account, so the inspiration is plausible but backed only by his own statements, with Lebanon at most in the background of the book. That fits the "mostly true" criterion.