Violence has declined over long stretches of history, and today is probably the most peaceful time in human history.

Two parts, judged as of 2007: (1) violence declined over long stretches of history; (2) the present is probably the most peaceful period in human history. True: the historical data available then (homicide rates, war deaths per capita, violent death rates in prehistoric versus modern populations) show long-term declines, and per-capita rates of violent death around 2007 were at or near their lowest recorded levels. Mostly true: both parts are broadly supported, with some measures or regions as exceptions, or 'most peaceful' supported for most but not all major measures. Mixed: the long-term decline is supported but whether the present is the most peaceful is substantially contested by the data, or vice versa. Mostly false: the decline holds only for narrow measures or regions and is presented as general, and the 'most peaceful' part is not supported. False: the evidence shows violence did not decline over long periods and the present was not unusually peaceful.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Long-Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime University of Chicago Press (Crime and Justice, Vol. 30) · 2003

   “Serious interpersonal violence decreased remarkably in Europe between the mid-sixteenth and the early twentieth centuries.”

2. E2 Monitoring Trends in Global Combat: A New Dataset of Battle Deaths - European Journal of Population Springer (European Journal of Population) · June 2005

   “Global battle deaths have been decreasing over most of this period, mainly due to a decline in interstate and internationalised civil armed conflict.”

3. E3 IN PREHISTORIC TIMES, WHEN VIOLENCE WAS REALLY VIOLENT Hartford Courant · 7 June 1994

   “The average annual violent death rate among the more recent tribal societies was 0.5 percent (500 per 100,000).”

4. E4 Data review: ethnographic and archaeological evidence on violent deaths Our World in Data · 2 August 2013

   “But on average they tend to be significantly higher than in modern state societies and the world today.”

E1 (2003) documents a large decrease in serious interpersonal violence in Europe from the mid-sixteenth to the early twentieth century. E2 (2005) reports that global battle deaths fell over most of the period it studied. E3 and E4 show that violent death rates in tribal and prehistoric societies were much higher than in modern state societies and the world today. Taken together, these support both a long-term decline and a present that is unusually peaceful. However, the evidence is partly regional (E1 covers Europe only) and does not show that every measure was at its lowest recorded level around 2007, so the verdict is mostly true rather than true.