More countries are democratic than not, though fewer than 20 years ago.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2025-09-24. Two parts: (a) democracies make up more than half of the world's countries; (b) the number of democracies is lower than about 20 years earlier (around 2005). True: a major index such as V-Dem, Polity, Freedom House electoral democracies, or Our World in Data's regime classification shows democracies above 50% of countries in its latest data, and a lower count than about 2005. Mostly true: both hold on most major indices, or hold with a small discrepancy in the comparison year. Mixed: only one part holds on major indices, or the indices substantially disagree. Mostly false: democracies are at or below half on most indices but the decline holds. False: neither part holds, or democracies are clearly a minority and the count has not fallen.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (5)
-
E1 NEW REPORT: Global Freedom Declined for 20th Consecutive Year in 2025 Freedom House · 19 March 2026
“Of the 88 countries rated Free, the United States experienced the sharpest decline”
-
E2 NEW REPORT: Global Freedom Declined for 20th Consecutive Year in 2025 Freedom House · 19 March 2026
“Of the 87 countries rated Free in 2005, a total of 76—more than 85 percent—have remained Free throughout the two-decade period of global decline.”
-
E3 NEW REPORT: Global Freedom Declined for 20th Consecutive Year in 2025 Freedom House · 19 March 2026
“Freedom in the World includes scores and country reports on political rights and civil liberties in 195 countries and 13 territories around the globe.”
-
E4 FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2025 Freedom House · February 2025
“Status Countries Territories FREE PARTLY FREE NOT FREE Total 85 51 59 195”
-
E5 FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2025 Freedom House · February 2025
“Countries with aggregate score declines in Freedom in the World have outnumbered those with gains every year for the past 19 years.”
Reasoning
Freedom in the World 2025, the latest Freedom House data as of the judgment date, rated 85 of 195 countries Free, about 44%, so on this measure countries rated Free are not a majority (E4). Freedom House says 87 countries were rated Free in 2005, so the drop to 85 supports the claim that there are fewer than 20 years earlier (E2, E4). The evidence does not include Freedom House's broader 'electoral democracy' count or other indices such as V-Dem. On the one index in evidence, only the part about the decline holds.
Cite this claim
Steven Pinker, “More countries are democratic than not, though fewer than 20 years ago.” (said 24 September 2025). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_252921ee8a3b, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_252921ee8a3b
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Steven Pinker
-
Mostly true
“But in other kinds violence, such as homicides, the progress has definitely continued.”
-
Mostly true
“I float a number of hypotheses as to why cooperation and human flourishing in general have increased.”
-
Mostly true
“Those were as old as civilisation.”
Slavery and imperialism were as old as civilisation, predating the Enlightenment.
-
Mixed
“Nuclear doomsday scenarios in the 1960s set off not disarmament but an arms race with the Soviets.”
-
Mostly true
“Harvard does not admit students on meritocratic grounds.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.