ClaimsSteven Pinker

“But in other kinds violence, such as homicides, the progress has definitely continued.”

Steven Pinker, interviewee 11 October 2026 Steven Pinker: Something that's arbitrary can be highly rational (New Statesman) archived copy

Factual Philosophy, ethics and society

Progress against homicide has definitely continued, with homicide rates for most countries and for the world as a whole better now than 15 years ago.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2026-10-11 using the latest homicide-rate data available then (e.g. UNODC global homicide rates; for the US, FBI/CDC or Council on Criminal Justice data; whichever scope the statement's context indicates, and the global rate if no scope is indicated). True: homicide rates in the relevant scope show a continued downward trend over the recent multi-year period (roughly the last 5–10 years up to the latest data), so the long-run decline has not stalled or reversed. Mostly true: the overall recent trend is downward but with a temporary increase (e.g. a 2020–21 spike) that has since been more than reversed, or the decline holds globally but not in every major region. Mixed: the recent trend is flat, or it declines in about as many major measures or regions as it rises in. Mostly false: recent rates are flat or higher than about a decade earlier, and only a short-term or narrow decline (one year, one country) supports the claim. False: recent homicide rates have clearly risen or stayed level over the recent period with no meaningful continued decline.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 www.ohchr.org › 2025sdg16report-peacePeaceful Societies - UN Human Rights Office UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) · 21 July 2026

    “Since the adoption of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the global intentional homicide rate has declined from 5.9 per 100,000 people in 2015 to 5.2 in 2023.”
  2. E2 — SDG Indicators UN Statistics Division (SDG Indicators) · 1 January 2026

    “The global homicide rate gradually decreased from 5.9 victims per 100,000 population in 2015 to 5.5 in 2020. This downward trend was disrupted in 2021, when the rate sharply rose to 5.8 before slightly retreating to 5.6 in 2022.”
  3. E3 Trends in Homicide: What You Need to Know - Council on Criminal Justice Council on Criminal Justice · October 2026

    “From 2000 to 2024, the cross-national homicide rate fell 26%. Unlike the U.S. rate, the global rate did not experience a sharp increase from 2020 to 2022.”
  4. E4 Trends in Homicide: What You Need to Know - Council on Criminal Justice Council on Criminal Justice · October 2026

    “By the second half of 2022, the rate began to decline, and in 2025, it fell to 4.1 per 100,000 people, the lowest level recorded in public health and law enforcement data since at least 1900.”

Reasoning

The claim gives no scope, so the global rate applies. UN data show the global homicide rate fell from 5.9 per 100,000 in 2015 to 5.5 in 2020. It then rose to 5.8 in 2021 before easing to 5.6 in 2022 (E2), and it had fallen to 5.2 by 2023 (E1). The Council on Criminal Justice reports that the cross-national rate fell 26% from 2000 to 2024 (E3), and that the US rate reached a record low of 4.1 in 2025 after the 2020–22 spike (E4). The decline continued over the recent period, but there was a temporary 2021 increase that was later more than reversed, which the criteria place under mostly true.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “Progress against homicide has definitely continued, with homicide rates for most countries and for the world as a whole better now than 15 years ago.” (said 11 October 2026). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_a7caef1eb381, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a7caef1eb381

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More factual claims by Steven Pinker

  1. Mostly true Factual 11 October 2026
    “I float a number of hypotheses as to why cooperation and human flourishing in general have increased.”

    Pinker said he floats a number of hypotheses as to why cooperation and human flourishing in general have increased.

  2. Mostly true Factual 11 October 2026
    “Those were as old as civilisation.”

    Slavery and imperialism were as old as civilisation, predating the Enlightenment.

  3. Mixed Factual 26 September 2026
    “Nuclear doomsday scenarios in the 1960s set off not disarmament but an arms race with the Soviets.”

    Nuclear doomsday scenarios in the 1960s set off an arms race with the Soviets rather than disarmament.

  4. Mixed Factual 24 September 2025
    “More countries are democratic than not, even though if it’s fewer than it was 20 years ago.”

    More countries are democratic than not, though fewer than 20 years ago.

  5. Mostly true Factual 24 September 2025
    “Harvard does not admit students on meritocratic grounds.”

    Harvard does not admit students on meritocratic grounds.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.