ClaimsScott Alexander

“Obviously not a good value proposition today, but it’s just obvious and overdetermined that in the future, when they have superintelligence and they want them, they can start buying up a lot of factories.”

Scott Alexander, podcast guest 3 April 2025 AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo (Dwarkesh Podcast) archived copy

Prediction AI, the economy and work

In future, once they have superintelligence and want robots, AI companies like OpenAI will be able to buy up many factories.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Open-ended prediction about a superintelligence era with no horizon.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “In future, once they have superintelligence and want robots, AI companies like OpenAI will be able to buy up many factories.” (said 3 April 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_edbb60c1bfde, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_edbb60c1bfde

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Resolved true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Technological unemployment will continue to be a topic of academic debate that might show up if you crunch the numbers just right, but there will be no obvious sign that it is happening on a large…”

    Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 2018
    “There will not be a Truckpocalypse before 2023.”

    There will not be a 'Truckpocalypse' before 2023.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”

    The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale.

All of them

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