After the debate, Harris re-established a consistent lead of about 3 points in national polls, leaving the Electoral College roughly 50/50 or maybe a slight Harris edge.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2024-10-08, covering the period from the 10 September 2024 debate to early October. Conditions: (a) Harris was widely judged the winner of the debate; (b) her lead in major national polling averages (Silver Bulletin, 538, NYT, RCP) was about 3 points, i.e. roughly 2–4 points, and held fairly steady over the period; (c) major Electoral College forecasts gave roughly 45–60% odds, consistent with 'roughly 50/50 or a slight Harris edge'. True: all three hold. Mostly true: all three broadly hold with a small slip, e.g. averages near 2–2.5 or 4–4.5 points, or one average outside the band. Mixed: one of the main conditions fails, e.g. the lead was clearly not steady, or the forecasts favoured one side more clearly. Mostly false: the national lead was well outside 2–4 points or clearly not consistent, and the forecasts did not match. False: Harris did not lead in national averages, or the forecasts clearly favoured Trump.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 The demographic swingometer returns Patrick Ruffini (Substack newsletter) · 20 September 2024
“Average of the Averages: Harris +2.9 (H+0.4)”
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E2 State of the Race: Focus on 50 Daily Kos · 21 September 2024
“She’s slightly stretched that to 2.8 points as of Friday at 2:30 PM ET, though some of the individual polling has looked downright gaudy”
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E3 Presidential race tied and essentially unchanged as it heads into final stretch Hartford Courant · 10 October 2024
“According to data presented by polling aggregator RealClearPolitics, Harris has held an average lead of about two points since mid-September.”
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E4 Pigs fly. Hell freezes over. The Electoral College favors ... Democrats? Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) · 26 September 2024 Own record
“As of Thursday, our forecast is that Kamala Harris is a 3:1 favorite in the popular vote — but the Electoral College is basically still a toss-up.”
Reasoning
The independent evidence shows Harris's national lead at roughly 2 to 3 points in the averages from mid-September to early October [E1][E2][E3]. No evidence item addresses whether Harris was widely judged the winner of the debate. The only evidence on Electoral College odds is the subject's own forecast [E4], not independent major forecasts, so conditions (a) and (c) are not settled.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “After the debate, Harris re-established a consistent lead of about 3 points in national polls, leaving the Electoral College roughly 50/50 or maybe a slight Harris edge.” (said 8 October 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_eb7a78341d78, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_eb7a78341d78
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Nate Silver
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Resolved true
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Resolved true
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Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to win the Senate majority in 2026.
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Resolved true
“Obviously, none of this is easy for Democrats — Collins, in particular, survived in 2020 even as Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden.”
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Mixed
“Utah has gradually been getting more purple, between attracting a tech-sector workforce and Mormons not always being so keen on Trump.”
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Mostly true
“The conservatives who leave tend to wind up in Florida and Texas, so those states are getting redder”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.