ClaimsNate Silver

“Obviously, none of this is easy for Democrats — Collins, in particular, survived in 2020 even as Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden.”

Nate Silver, author 12 May 2025 Can Democrats really win the Senate in 2026? (Silver Bulletin) archived copy

Factual Other Political

Susan Collins won re-election in Maine in 2020 even as Donald Trump lost the presidency to Joe Biden.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

True: certified 2020 results show Susan Collins won re-election to the US Senate from Maine, and Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden. Mostly true: both facts hold, apart from a trivial misstatement of detail. False: Collins lost in 2020, or Trump did not lose to Biden. Mixed: only one of the two facts holds.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Sen. Susan Collins re-elected in Maine - Ballotpedia News Ballotpedia News · 9 November 2020

    “Incumbent Susan Collins (R) defeated Sara Gideon (D) and five more candidates for U.S. Senate in Maine.”

  2. E2 2020 Electoral College Results U.S. National Archives and Records Administration

    “Electoral Vote | Winner: 306 | Main Opponent: 232 | Total/Majority: 538/270”

  3. E3 2020 Electoral College Results U.S. National Archives and Records Administration

    “President | Joseph R. Biden Jr. [D]”

Reasoning

E1 (Ballotpedia News, 2020-11-09) reports that incumbent Susan Collins (R) defeated Sara Gideon (D) and five other candidates for U.S. Senate in Maine. The National Archives page on 2020 Electoral College results lists Joseph R. Biden Jr. as President (E3). It also shows the winner with 306 electoral votes to the main opponent's 232 (E2). Both parts of the proposition hold.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Susan Collins won re-election in Maine in 2020 even as Donald Trump lost the presidency to Joe Biden.” (said 12 May 2025). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_d9d1b7c8a987, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d9d1b7c8a987

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Nate Silver

  1. Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025
    “That will require probing deep into Republican territory, winning at least two states that have become solidly red at the presidential level.”

    Winning the Senate in 2026 would require Democrats to win at least two states that are solidly red at the presidential level.

  2. Resolved true Factual 12 May 2025
    “To win the Senate, they’ll need four pickups.2”

    Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to win the Senate majority in 2026.

  3. Mixed Factual 7 November 2024
    “Utah has gradually been getting more purple, between attracting a tech-sector workforce and Mormons not always being so keen on Trump.”

    Utah has gradually become more politically purple, due to a tech-sector workforce and Mormons not always being keen on Trump.

  4. Mostly true Factual 7 November 2024
    “The conservatives who leave tend to wind up in Florida and Texas, so those states are getting redder”

    Conservatives leaving blue states tend to move to Florida and Texas, making those states redder, and many polls did not catch up.

  5. Mixed Factual 11 October 2016
    “Others were even lower: five or ten percent.”

    Other forecasts gave Trump even lower chances than the 20 percent in Silver's forecast with numbers like those: five or ten percent.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.