There are not more slaves in the world today than in the past as a proportion of the world's population.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
True if credible estimates show that the share of the world's population held in slavery (including modern forms such as forced labour, as defined by the estimates used) is lower today (c. 2025) than in earlier periods, such as the 18th–19th centuries, when slavery was legal and widespread. Mostly true if the share is clearly lower than in most past periods, with some uncertainty about definitions or about a particular era. Mixed if the comparison depends heavily on definitions (e.g. counting forced marriage or debt bondage) and reasonable estimates point both ways. Mostly false if the best estimates suggest the share today is similar to some major historical periods. False if credible estimates show a higher proportion enslaved today than in the past.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 International Abolition of Slavery Day 2022 University of Hull · 2 December 2022
“Fortunately, the number of slaves in the world population of 2022, at around 0.7 percent, is lower than at the height of slavery, around 1800, when perhaps 5 percent of the world population was enslaved.”
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E2 Global Estimates of Modern Slavery: Forced Labour and Forced Marriage International Labour Organization (with Walk Free and IOM) · September 2022
“This number translates to nearly one of every 150 people in the world.”
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E3 Global Slavery Index | Walk Free Walk Free · 28 February 2025
“An estimated 50 million people were living in modern slavery on any given day in 2021, an increase of 10 million people since 2016.”
Reasoning
The ILO/Walk Free/IOM global estimates put modern slavery, including forced labour and forced marriage, at about one in every 150 people (E2), roughly 50 million people in 2021 (E3). A University of Hull article compares a current share of about 0.7 percent with "perhaps 5 percent" of the world's population enslaved around 1800 (E1). Even under the broad modern definition, today's share is therefore much lower than the historical one. The verdict is mostly true rather than true because the historical figure is a rough, hedged ("perhaps") estimate from a single source.
Cite this claim
Steven Pinker, “There are not more slaves in the world today than in the past as a proportion of the world's population.” (said 24 September 2025). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_e7f74053386b, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e7f74053386b
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Steven Pinker
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Mostly true
“But in other kinds violence, such as homicides, the progress has definitely continued.”
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Mostly true
“I float a number of hypotheses as to why cooperation and human flourishing in general have increased.”
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Mostly true
“Those were as old as civilisation.”
Slavery and imperialism were as old as civilisation, predating the Enlightenment.
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Mixed
“Nuclear doomsday scenarios in the 1960s set off not disarmament but an arms race with the Soviets.”
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Mixed
“More countries are democratic than not, even though if it’s fewer than it was 20 years ago.”
More countries are democratic than not, though fewer than 20 years ago.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.