ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“Fifty percent of all semiconductors in the world and 80% of high-end [semiconductors] are produced in Taiwan.”

Nouriel Roubini, interviewee 3 January 2023 Storm Clouds Looming: Q&A With Nouriel Roubini (Global Finance Magazine)

Factual AI compute, hardware and data

Fifty percent of the world's semiconductors and 80% of high-end semiconductors are produced in Taiwan.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge as of January 2023 using industry data (for example SIA/BCG, TrendForce, IC Insights) on Taiwan's share of global semiconductor production or foundry capacity, and its share of leading-edge (advanced-node) chips. True: Taiwan's share of overall output is about 50% (roughly 45–60%, for example its share of global foundry output) and its share of advanced or high-end chips is about 80% (roughly 75–92%). Mostly true: both figures are roughly supported, or one matches and the other is off by a moderate margin, or the 50% figure holds only for foundry output and not for all semiconductors. Mixed: one figure is supported and the other is clearly wrong. Mostly false: both are distorted. For example, Taiwan's share of all semiconductor production (including integrated device makers and memory) was well below 50% (for example about 20%), and the high-end share was materially different from 80%, though these are based on real foundry or leading-edge statistics. False: neither figure has any reasonable basis.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Localization of Chip Manufacturing Rising. Taiwan to Control 48% of Global Foundry Capacity in 2022, Says TrendForce TrendForce · 25 April 2022

    “According to TrendForce, Taiwan is crucial to the global semiconductor supply chain, accounting for a 26% market share of semiconductor revenue in 2021, ranking second in the world.”
  2. E2 Localization of Chip Manufacturing Rising. Taiwan to Control 48% of Global Foundry Capacity in 2022, Says TrendForce TrendForce · 25 April 2022

    “In 2022, Taiwan will account for approximately 48% of global 12-inch equivalent wafer foundry production capacity.”
  3. E3 Localization of Chip Manufacturing Rising. Taiwan to Control 48% of Global Foundry Capacity in 2022, Says TrendForce TrendForce · 25 April 2022

    “Firmly in the pole position, Taiwan accounts for 64% of the foundry market.”
  4. E4 STRENGTHENING THE GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IN AN UNCERTAIN ERA Semiconductor Industry Association / Boston Consulting Group (SIA/BCG)

    “100% of the world’s most advanced (below 10 nanometers) semiconductor manufacturing capacity is currently located in Taiwan (92%) and South Korea (8%).”

Reasoning

TrendForce projected Taiwan would hold about 48% of global 12-inch-equivalent foundry capacity in 2022 (E2) and said it accounts for 64% of the foundry market (E3). That supports the 50% figure, but only for foundry output. TrendForce put Taiwan's share of all semiconductor revenue in 2021 at 26% [E1], which suggests the 50% figure may not hold for all semiconductors, although revenue share is a different measure from production share. SIA/BCG put Taiwan's share of the most advanced (below 10nm) manufacturing capacity at 92% (E4), which falls within the approximate range for the 80% high-end figure. The criteria rate this pattern, where the 50% figure holds only for foundry output, as mostly true.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “Fifty percent of the world's semiconductors and 80% of high-end semiconductors are produced in Taiwan.” (said 3 January 2023). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_e5f7c2ae415d, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e5f7c2ae415d

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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All of them

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