During the millennia humans spent as hunter-gatherers, the average rate of violent death was higher than in the worst years of World War II and about five times the rate of death from all wars, genocides and human-made famines in the 20th century.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2011-11-10, against the scholarly evidence available then. The claim has two comparisons: (1) the average annual rate of violent death among hunter-gatherers (deaths per 100,000 per year, or share of all deaths) was higher than the rate in the worst years of WWII; (2) it was about five times the 20th-century rate of death from all wars, genocides and human-made famines (roughly 3-7x counts as 'about five'). True: well-supported estimates (for example compilations of ethnographic and archaeological data such as Keeley, Bowles or Gat) support both comparisons, and the data's representativeness is not seriously undermined. Mostly true: both comparisons hold in direction, but the multiple is somewhat outside 'about five' (for example 2.5-3x or 7-9x). Mixed: one comparison is supported and the other is not, or the estimates vary so much that both comparisons hold under some credible datasets and fail under others. Mostly false: the figures come from real but unrepresentative samples (for example non-state societies that were not mobile hunter-gatherers, or selected sites), and when the data are properly restricted to hunter-gatherers the comparisons are substantially overstated (critiques such as Fry and Söderberg, or Ferguson). False: credible evidence shows that hunter-gatherer violent-death rates were at or below 20th-century war, genocide and famine rates.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (12)
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E1 Did Warfare Among Ancestral Hunter-Gatherers Affect the Evolution of Human Social Behaviors? Science (Samuel Bowles) · 5 June 2009
“The 8 ethnographic and 15 archaeological sources included yield similar results (Table 1), consistent with the view that prehistoric warfare was frequent and lethal, but somewhat less so than estimates based on data in the standard source for these estimates (6).”
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E2 Necrometrics: Estimated Totals for the Entire 20th Century Necrometrics (Matthew White) · September 2010
“Deaths in wars and conflicts, incl. civilian: 130M-142M”
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E3 The Better Angels of Our Nature - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Douglas P. Fry of the University of Alabama at Birmingham stated that "recent assertions by Steven Pinker and others that violent death in the Paleolithic was shockingly high are greatly exaggerated.”
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E4 The Better Angels of Our Nature - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Ferguson, R.B. 2013. Pinker's List: Exaggerating Prehistoric War Mortality.”
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E5 Did Warfare Among Ancestral Hunter-Gatherers Affect the Evolution of Human Social Behaviors? Science (Samuel Bowles) · 5 June 2009
“The 8 ethnographic and 15 archaeological sources included yield similar results (Table 1), consistent with the view that prehistoric warfare was frequent and lethal, but somewhat less so than estimates based on data in the standard source for these estimates (6).”
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E6 Did Warfare Among Ancestral Hunter-Gatherers Affect the Evolution of Human Social Behaviors? Science (Samuel Bowles) · 5 June 2009
“As in the case of archaeological studies, selection bias may lead to an exaggeration of the extent of warfare mortality.”
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E7 Did Warfare Among Ancestral Hunter-Gatherers Affect the Evolution of Human Social Behaviors? Science (Samuel Bowles) · 5 June 2009
“Of these 34 sources, 14 were found to present data that were unrepresentative (for example, when warfare was primarily with modern agricultural populations), unreliable, or inadequate.”
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E8 The Better Angels of Our Nature - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Douglas P. Fry of the University of Alabama at Birmingham stated that "recent assertions by Steven Pinker and others that violent death in the Paleolithic was shockingly high are greatly exaggerated.”
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E9 Data review: ethnographic and archaeological evidence on violent deaths Our World in Data · 2 August 2013
“After this assessment of Pinker's data, I did not find any reason to assume that he cherry-picked.”
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E10 Data review: ethnographic and archaeological evidence on violent deaths Our World in Data · 2 August 2013
“Society: (Hunter-Gatherer) Murngin 20 years (Australia) Violent deaths per 100,000 people per year: 330”
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E11 Data review: ethnographic and archaeological evidence on violent deaths Our World in Data · 2 August 2013
“Society: World, 20th Century (wars & genocides) Violent deaths per 100,000 people per year: 60”
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E12 Data review: ethnographic and archaeological evidence on violent deaths Our World in Data · 2 August 2013
“Society: (Hunter-Gatherer) Anbara, N. Australia Share of Violent Deaths: 4%”
Reasoning
The evidence has no average hunter-gatherer violent-death rate and no rate for the worst years of World War II, so neither comparison can be checked directly. E10 and E11 list one hunter-gatherer group, the Murngin, at 330 violent deaths per 100,000 per year, against 60 for 20th-century wars and genocides. But that is a single society, and E12 lists another group, the Anbara, with violent deaths at only 4% of all deaths. Bowles's 2009 compilation (E1, E6, E7) describes prehistoric warfare as frequent and lethal, but somewhat less so than the standard source suggests, and warns that selection bias may exaggerate the figures. Fry's critique (E3) is undated, so it cannot be placed relative to the judgement date, and E4 dates Ferguson's critique to 2013, after it. Without averaged figures, the evidence does not show which verdict category applies.
Cite this claim
Steven Pinker, “During the millennia humans spent as hunter-gatherers, the average rate of violent death was higher than in the worst years of World War II and about five times the rate of death from all wars, genocides and human-made famines in the 20th century.” (said 10 November 2011). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_dd6110c08deb, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_dd6110c08deb
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Steven Pinker
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Mostly true
“But in other kinds violence, such as homicides, the progress has definitely continued.”
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Mostly true
“I float a number of hypotheses as to why cooperation and human flourishing in general have increased.”
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Mostly true
“Those were as old as civilisation.”
Slavery and imperialism were as old as civilisation, predating the Enlightenment.
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Mixed
“Nuclear doomsday scenarios in the 1960s set off not disarmament but an arms race with the Soviets.”
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Mixed
“More countries are democratic than not, even though if it’s fewer than it was 20 years ago.”
More countries are democratic than not, though fewer than 20 years ago.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.