The Scion Value Fund will generally fall less than the market in a bear market.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Test: did the Scion Value Fund (and its successor, Scion Capital's funds) lose less than the broad US market (S&P 500 total return) in market declines while Burry ran it (2001–2008)? Bear-market periods: the 2001–2002 decline and the 2007–2009 decline, or any other period of 20% or more peak-to-trough fall in the S&P 500 while the fund operated. True: in every such period the fund fell less than the S&P 500, or gained. Mostly true: it did so in nearly all such periods, or by a clear margin overall, with one minor exception. Mixed: it fell less in about half of the periods. Mostly false: it fell as much as the market or more in most periods. False: it fell more than the market in every bear-market period covered.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Michael Burry Beyond the Big Short - Syz Blog Banque Syz SA (Syz Private Banking) · 25 November 2025
“Between its inception on 1 November 2000 and June 2008, Scion Capital returned nearly 489.34%, net of fees and expenses, when the S&P 500 gained less than 3% over the same period.”
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E2 The Big Short Goes Long Law Street Media (John A. Jenkins) · 3 December 2025
“His original fund, Scion Capital, produced extraordinary returns — nearly 500 percent (after fees) between 2000 and 2008. The S&P 500 gained a mere 3 percent during the same stretch.”
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E3 Michael Burry Beyond the Big Short - Syz Blog Banque Syz SA (Syz Private Banking) · 25 November 2025
“When the subprime market finally cracked in 2007 and the collapse accelerated in 2008, Scion’s portfolio surged.”
Reasoning
E1 and E2 report only a total return from 2000 to June 2008 that far exceeds the S&P 500. They do not show how the fund did within the 2001–2002 or 2007–2009 declines. E3 says the portfolio surged during the 2007–2008 subprime collapse but gives no figures and no comparison with the market, so the evidence does not show whether the fund fell less than the S&P 500 in each bear market.
Cite this claim
Michael Burry, “The Scion Value Fund will generally fall less than the market in a bear market.” (said 3 July 2001). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_db434362a1e5, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_db434362a1e5
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Michael Burry
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Mostly false
“All personal income taxes collected in a year do not so much as add up to $1 trillion dollars, and yet by 2020 interest expense on our national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion.”
US interest expense on the national debt alone could exceed $1 trillion by 2020.
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Resolved true
“Today, I expect the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term”
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Mixed
“I imagine the shares of these companies, in most cases, will become very boring before they become attractive again.”
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Mostly true
“Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now in the cards.”
Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions.
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Resolved true
“The S&P 500 could easily finish the year in the negative, dragging many investment funds – too many of which are crowded into the same “value-but-for-a-dire-economy” trades – down with it.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.