ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“I worry that the Great Moderation is over, and the Great Deflationary Debt Crisis and instability is upon us and not just for a year or two, but it’s more of a medium- to long-term phenomenon.”

Nouriel Roubini, interviewee 3 January 2023 Storm Clouds Looming: Q&A With Nouriel Roubini (Global Finance Magazine)

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

Roubini said he worries that the Great Moderation is over and that a Great Deflationary Debt Crisis and instability is upon us, as a medium- to long-term phenomenon rather than one lasting a year or two.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

A vague, open-ended regime claim with undefined terms and no horizon.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “Roubini said he worries that the Great Moderation is over and that a Great Deflationary Debt Crisis and instability is upon us, as a medium- to long-term phenomenon rather than one lasting a year or two.” (said 3 January 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_da1df0a53e14, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_da1df0a53e14

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More prediction claims by Nouriel Roubini

  1. Resolved false Prediction 30 June 2024
    “In a note to my clients this week I made a wide out-of-consensus call that the RN - Le Pen’s party - will win an absolute majority in the current French parliamentary elections (60% probability for…”

    The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 27 October 2023
    “As I predicted in early September in an interview with Bloomberg”

    US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023).

  3. Mostly false Prediction 3 January 2023
    “They are talking tough [but if] faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, they’re going to wimp out.”

    Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 3 January 2023
    “China’s not going to take lightly this attempt at full technological and economic containment.”

    China will respond strongly to US technological and economic containment rather than take it lightly.

  5. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “So it’s much worse than the ‘70s, and it’s probably as bad as during the GFC.”

    The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

All of them

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