AIs would spend some time, which he put at about a year (possibly more or less), getting the facilities they need for experiments, such as automated biology labs, running to clear bottlenecks.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
Prediction tied to superintelligence arrival with no dated horizon.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “AIs would spend some time, which he put at about a year (possibly more or less), getting the facilities they need for experiments, such as automated biology labs, running to clear bottlenecks.” (said 3 April 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_da0ebdf5bea6, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_da0ebdf5bea6
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.