Altman said he thinks other threats, such as an engineered virus with a long incubation period and a high mortality rate, are more certain to happen than SMI but unlikely to destroy every human in the way that SMI could.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
Probabilistic comparison of threats with no horizon.
Cite this claim
Sam Altman, “Altman said he thinks other threats, such as an engineered virus with a long incubation period and a high mortality rate, are more certain to happen than SMI but unlikely to destroy every human in the way that SMI could.” (said February 2015). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d3dfc8a450f4, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d3dfc8a450f4
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Sam Altman
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Resolved true
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.