By 2025, AGI will feel within reach to many people in the AI industry.

True: by end-2025, many prominent people in the AI industry (e.g. leaders and researchers at several major labs, not just one person) publicly said AGI is near, achievable within a few years, or within reach, as shown in dated interviews, essays or surveys from 2024–2025. Mostly true: this view is widely held but mainly at one or two labs, or surveys show a large minority rather than broad prevalence. Mixed: industry opinion is clearly split, with many prominent figures saying AGI is near and many saying it is distant. Mostly false: only a few isolated figures say AGI feels within reach, and most industry voices dismiss it. False: by 2025 industry opinion broadly holds that AGI is far off or not within reach.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 AGI 'timelines' are getting shorter. So why is AI safety getting less and less attention from top AI labs? | Fortune Fortune · 15 April 2025

   “Dario Amodei, the cofounder and CEO of AI company Anthropic, thinks we’ll hit AGI by 2027 too.”

2. E2 AGI 'timelines' are getting shorter. So why is AI safety getting less and less attention from top AI labs? | Fortune Fortune · 15 April 2025

   “Demis Hassabis, the Google DeepMind cofounder and CEO, has a slightly longer timeline—five to 10 years—but researchers at his company just published a report saying it’s “plausible” AGI will be developed by 2030.”

3. E3 Contrarians No More: AI Skepticism Is on the Rise Dark Reading · 31 December 2025

   “As a result, some of the most well-known AI critics are claiming their predictions have been validated, whether they're about massive AI spending failing to deliver results or lofty promises about general artificial intelligence falling short.”

4. E4 Yann LeCun: Track Record EA Crux Project knowledge base · December 2025

   “But telling the public blatantly false predictions (‘AGI next year’, ‘1 million robotaxis by 2020’, ‘AGI will kill us all, lets pause’…) is very counterproductive (also illegal in some cases).”

A Fortune article from April 2025, titled "AGI 'timelines' are getting shorter," reports that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei expects AGI by 2027 (E1). The same article reports that DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis gives five to 10 years and that DeepMind researchers called AGI by 2030 "plausible" (E2). So leaders at more than one major lab publicly treated AGI as near-term. But sources from late 2025 describe rising skepticism, with critics saying the promises about AGI were falling short (E3), and Yann LeCun rejecting "AGI next year" predictions (E4). Many prominent figures did hold the view, but the evidence shows real dissent and clearly documents only a few labs, which fits mostly true better than broad industry agreement.