ClaimsSam Altman

“on many coding tasks, o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction!”

Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO, on X 21 December 2024 Post by @sama on X, 2024-12-21 (X)

Prediction AI capabilities

On many coding tasks, OpenAI's o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge at o3-mini's public release (early 2025) and its first few months of evaluation. The two parts are: (a) on many coding tasks, o3-mini (at some reasoning-effort setting) scores better than o1; (b) it costs much less. True: OpenAI's published evaluations and independent coding benchmarks (for example Codeforces, SWE-bench Verified, LiveBench coding, Aider) show o3-mini beating o1 on several coding benchmarks, and o3-mini's API price or cost per task is several times lower (around 5x or more cheaper). Mostly true: both hold, but o3-mini beats o1 on only some coding benchmarks or the cost reduction is smaller than "massive" (for example 2–5x). Mixed: only one of (a) and (b) holds. Mostly false: o3-mini matches but rarely beats o1 on coding, even though it is cheaper. False: o3-mini does worse than o1 on most coding benchmarks and is not substantially cheaper, or o3-mini was never released.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 OpenAI o3-mini, now available in LLM Simon Willison's Weblog · 31 January 2025

    “o3-mini is priced at $1.10/million input tokens, $4.40/million output tokens—less than half the price of GPT-4o (currently $2.50/$10) and massively cheaper than o1 ($15/$60).”
  2. E2 OpenAI Releases Reasoning Model o3-mini, Faster and More Accurate Than o1 InfoQ · 11 February 2025

    “At high reasoning level, o3-mini outperforms the full o1 model on several benchmarks, including AIME 2024, GPQA Diamond, and SWE-bench Verified.”
  3. E3 OpenAI o3-mini OpenAI · 31 January 2025 Own record

    “o3‑mini with medium reasoning effort matches o1’s performance in math, coding, and science, while delivering faster responses.”
  4. E4 OpenAI o3-mini, now available in LLM Simon Willison's Weblog · 31 January 2025

    “the benchmarks in the o3-mini system card (PDF) aren’t a universal win for o3-mini across all categories.”

Reasoning

E1, an independent source, lists o3-mini's API price at $1.10/$4.40 per million input/output tokens against o1's $15/$60. That is about 13 times cheaper, which meets the "massive" cost-reduction part. On coding, E2 (independent) says o3-mini at high reasoning effort beat full o1 on SWE-bench Verified, but that is the only coding benchmark the evidence names as a win. E3 says o3-mini at medium effort only matches o1 on coding, and E4 says the system-card benchmarks are not a universal win for o3-mini. The cost part fully holds, but only one coding-benchmark win is documented rather than several, which fits the criteria's "mostly true".

Cite this claim

Sam Altman, “On many coding tasks, OpenAI's o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction.” (said 21 December 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_40c3f94b025c, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_40c3f94b025c

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Sam Altman, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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  2. Mostly true Prediction 5 January 2019
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  3. Resolved true Prediction 5 January 2019
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  4. Resolved true Prediction 2017
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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.