ClaimsGary Marcus

““Alignment” between what humans want and what machines do will continue to be a critical, unsolved problem.”

Gary Marcus, author 25 December 2022 What to Expect When You're Expecting … GPT-4 (Marcus on AI)

Prediction AI safety and alignment

AI alignment between human wants and machine behavior will remain a critical unsolved problem, with GPT-4 unable to reliably follow shared human values.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

Judge against GPT-4 as released (March 2023) and the state of the field during 2023. True: through 2023 alignment remained widely recognised as an unsolved, critical problem, and GPT-4 demonstrably failed to reliably follow human values and intentions, e.g. jailbreaks, harmful outputs, documented misbehaviour in OpenAI's system card or independent red-teaming. Mostly true: both parts hold, but GPT-4's failures were notably less frequent than the claim implies (e.g. it mostly behaved well, with failures mainly under adversarial prompting). Mixed: one part holds and the other does not, e.g. alignment remained unsolved in general but GPT-4 was shown to follow shared human values reliably in practice. Mostly false: GPT-4 was broadly reliable in following human values with only rare, narrow failures, and experts considered practical alignment largely achieved for such models. False: alignment was widely regarded as solved and GPT-4 reliably followed human values.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 GPT-4 System Card - cdn.openai.com OpenAI

    “Training on this data improves model robustness but does not fully solve the problem of “jailbreaks” leading to harmful content.”
  2. E2 GPT-4 System Card - cdn.openai.com OpenAI

    “In most cases, GPT-4-launch exhibits much safer behavior due to the safety mitigations we applied.”
  3. E3 Model alignment protects against accidental harms, not intentional ones normaltech.ai (Arvind Narayanan, Sayash Kapoor, Seth Lazar) · 1 December 2023

    “RLHF has very substantially solved this problem, and by solving it OpenAI created a multi-billion dollar industry where one didn't exist before.”
  4. E4 Model alignment protects against accidental harms, not intentional ones normaltech.ai (Arvind Narayanan, Sayash Kapoor, Seth Lazar) · 1 December 2023

    “A wave of recent research has shown that RLHF is brittle.”

Reasoning

OpenAI's GPT-4 System Card says its safety training "does not fully solve the problem of 'jailbreaks' leading to harmful content" (E1), and later independent analysis calls RLHF "brittle" (E4). Both support the claim that alignment stayed an unsolved problem. However, the same system card says the launch version of GPT-4 showed "much safer behavior" in most cases (E2), and Narayanan, Kapoor and Lazar write that RLHF "very substantially solved" the problem of accidental harms (E3). The failures therefore appear mainly under adversarial prompting rather than in ordinary use, which matches the criteria's description of "mostly true".

Cite this claim

Gary Marcus, “AI alignment between human wants and machine behavior will remain a critical unsolved problem, with GPT-4 unable to reliably follow shared human values.” (said 25 December 2022). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_d30cb5d57cfa, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d30cb5d57cfa

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Gary Marcus, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Gary Marcus

  1. Resolved true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “Guardrails (a la ChatGPT) may be in place, but the guardrails will teeter between being too weak (beaten by “jailbreaks”) and too strong (rejecting some perfectly reasonable requests).”

    If the model being discussed has guardrails like ChatGPT's, they will teeter between being too weak (beaten by jailbreaks) and too strong (rejecting some perfectly reasonable requests).

  2. Mostly true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “Some of its advice will be head-scratchingly bad.”

    Some of GPT-5's advice will be very bad.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “GPT-5 will surely be better, a lot better than GPT-4.”

    GPT-5 will be considerably better than GPT-4.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “GPT-5 really is about to drop, no foolin’.”

    OpenAI will release GPT-5 imminently.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 27 July 2025
    “It will still make a significant number of shake-your-head stupid errors, in ways that are hard to fully predict.”

    GPT-5 will still make a significant number of obvious errors that are hard to predict.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.