ClaimsNate Silver

“Not a uniformly great poll for Democrats. Although support for impeachment is way up, the number of voters who *strongly* approve of Trump is also up (overall approval roughly unchanged).”

Nate Silver, writing on X 30 September 2019 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2019-09-30 (X)

Factual AI timelines and forecasting Political

A new poll shows support for impeachment way up and the share who strongly approve of Trump also up, with overall approval roughly unchanged.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Identify the poll Silver referenced (released around 29–30 Sept 2019, e.g., a CBS/YouGov, CNN or similar poll) and compare it with that pollster's previous wave. True: support for impeachment rose substantially (several points or more), the share strongly approving of Trump rose, and overall approval changed by no more than about 2 points. Mostly true: all three hold, with one change slightly smaller or larger than described (e.g., overall approval moved 2–3 points). Mixed: two of the three parts hold. Mostly false: only one part holds (e.g., impeachment support up, but strong approval flat or down). False: impeachment support did not rise, or the poll shows none of the described changes.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (8)

  1. E1 Polls show support for impeachment rising amid Trump ... - Axios Axios · 26 September 2019

    “The Ukraine story, and subsequent calls for his impeachment, have not changed Trump’s already-low approval rating. Forty-one percent of voters approve of Trump and 56 percent disapprove, roughly unchanged since the Sept. 20-22 poll,”
  2. E2 Polls show support for impeachment rising amid Trump ... - Axios Axios · 26 September 2019

    “43% support impeachment proceedings against Trump, up 7 points from a poll on Sept. 20–22.”
  3. E3 Impeachment, Sep 2019 Marist College Institute for Public Opinion (NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll) · 27 September 2019

    “The proportion of Americans who strongly approve of the president’s job performance is 31%. 39% of those who disapprove say they strongly do so. When reported earlier this month, 28% said they strongly approved of the president’s job performance, and 45% reported they strongly disapproved.”
  4. E4 Impeachment, Sep 2019 Marist College Institute for Public Opinion (NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll) · 27 September 2019

    “President Trump’s job approval rating among Americans is 44%, notched up from 41% earlier this month.”
  5. E5 PRESS RELEASE: Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Trump/Biden/Ukraine Survey Wave 2 Ipsos (for Reuters) · 30 September 2019

    “Currently, 45% of Americans believe President Trump should be impeached, up from 37% last week.”
  6. E6 PRESS RELEASE: Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Trump/Biden/Ukraine Survey Wave 2 Ipsos (for Reuters) · 30 September 2019

    “At the same time, President Trump’s approval rating has decreased, from 43% last week to 39% now.”
  7. E7 Trump's Approval Rating Is Lower Than Support for His Impeachment: Poll Newsweek · 1 October 2019

    “Five days earlier, another Quinnipiac poll showed support for Trump's impeachment at 37 percent and opposition at 57 percent, suggesting the Ukraine-Biden affair is shifting the dial among voters.”
  8. E8 Trump's Approval Rating Is Lower Than Support for His Impeachment: Poll Newsweek · 1 October 2019

    “President Donald Trump's approval rating is six points lower than support for his impeachment, according to a new poll, following a sudden shift in opinion among voters about removing him from office.”

Reasoning

None of the evidence identifies which poll Silver meant, and no single poll in the evidence shows all three parts of the claim. A poll reported by Axios shows impeachment support up 7 points since a Sept. 20–22 poll, with approval roughly unchanged, but the quoted text gives no figures on strong approval (E1, E2). Marist shows strong approval up from 28% to 31% and overall approval up 3 points, but the quoted text gives no figures on impeachment support (E3, E4). Reuters/Ipsos shows impeachment support up 8 points but approval down 4, and the quoted text gives no strong-approval figures (E5, E6); the Quinnipiac coverage gives only an earlier 37% impeachment figure and a six-point gap between approval and impeachment support (E7, E8). Without the referenced poll and its previous wave, the claim cannot be checked against the criteria.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “A new poll shows support for impeachment way up and the share who strongly approve of Trump also up, with overall approval roughly unchanged.” (said 30 September 2019). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d2f55748ddfe, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d2f55748ddfe

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Nate Silver

  1. Resolved true Factual 8 September 2023
    “It’s not hard, for instance, to find polls from this point in 2015 showing Hillary Clinton with double-digit leads over Trump.”

    Polls from around September 2015 can be found showing Hillary Clinton with double-digit leads over Donald Trump.

  2. Mostly true Factual 21 May 2022
    “There was never any spike in Biden's approval rating.”

    Joe Biden's approval rating never had a spike.

  3. Resolved true Factual 9 June 2021
    “This is the pollster that had shown a big bounce for Garcia before, so either that previous poll was an outlier or her momentum has been usurped by Wiley.”

    A pollster that earlier showed a big bounce for Garcia has now shown a result implying either that the earlier poll was an outlier or that Wiley has taken over her momentum.

  4. Mixed Factual November 2016
    “Instead, there was a modest polling error, well in line with historical polling errors, but even a modest error was enough to provide for plenty of paths to victory for Trump.”

    The 2016 polling error was modest and in line with historical polling errors, yet large enough to give Trump many paths to victory.

  5. Mostly true Factual November 2016
    “The single most important reason that our model gave Trump a better chance than others is because of our assumption that polling errors are correlated.”

    The main reason FiveThirtyEight's 2016 model gave Trump a better chance than other models was its assumption that polling errors are correlated.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.