A pollster that earlier showed a big bounce for Garcia has now shown a result implying either that the earlier poll was an outlier or that Wiley has taken over her momentum.

True: shortly before 9 June 2021, a pollster released a NYC mayoral primary poll that showed a large rise for Kathryn Garcia. Around 9 June, the same pollster released a new poll in which Garcia had fallen back and/or Maya Wiley had risen, so that the reading (earlier poll an outlier, or momentum shifted to Wiley) is reasonable. Mostly true: both polls exist, but the size of the earlier bounce or of the later shift is slightly overstated. Mixed: the polls are from different pollsters, or the new poll shows only a modest change. Mostly false: no earlier big Garcia bounce in that pollster's polling, or the new poll does not show Garcia falling relative to Wiley. False: no such pair of polls exists.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Adams Takes Back Lead as Wiley Emerges in NYC Mayor Race Emerson College Polling (PIX11/NewsNation/Emerson poll release; hosted on reportablenews.com) · 9 June 2021

   “former counsel to Mayor de Blasio Maya Wiley jumping up to second place with 17%, an increase of 8 percentage points since the May 25 poll. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang maintains third place, with 15%, while former commissioner for the NYC Sanitation Department Kathryn Garcia dropped from 21% to 12%.”

2. E2 Garcia Surges to Lead in NYC Mayor Race while Adams Holds His Base - Emerson Polling Emerson College Polling · 25 May 2021

   “Over the course of the three surveys, PIX11 News and Emerson College have conducted on this race, Garcia shows the most momentum, moving from 5% on March 6, to 8% on May 15, up to 21% as the leader in the latest poll.”

3. E3 Adams Takes Back Lead as Wiley Emerges in NYC Mayor Race Emerson College Polling (PIX11/NewsNation/Emerson poll release; hosted on reportablenews.com) · 9 June 2021

   “The PIX11/Emerson College NYC Mayoral poll was conducted June 7 and 8, 2021. The sample consisted of New York City registered voters, n=1,162”

4. E4 Garcia Surges to Lead in NYC Mayor Race while Adams Holds His Base - Emerson Polling Emerson College Polling · 25 May 2021

   “The PIX11/Emerson College NYC Mayoral poll was conducted May 23-24, 2021. The sample consisted of New York City registered voters, n=895,”

The proposition holds up. Emerson College's poll of May 23-24, 2021 had Kathryn Garcia jumping from 8% to 21% and taking the lead. That is a big bounce shortly before 9 June (E2, E4). The same pollster's poll of June 7-8, released 9 June, had Garcia falling from 21% to 12% and Maya Wiley rising 8 points to 17%, moving into second place (E1, E3). This pair of polls from one pollster fits the reading that either the earlier poll was an outlier or Wiley had taken over Garcia's momentum.