ClaimsScott Alexander

“I think all of this will show up eventually, but not by 2028.”

Scott Alexander, blogger 20 February 2023 Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023 (Astral Codex Ten) archived copy

Prediction AI, the economy and work

AI's revolutionary economic effects will show up eventually in macroeconomic indicators, but not by 2028.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2028 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “AI's revolutionary economic effects will show up eventually in macroeconomic indicators, but not by 2028.” (said 20 February 2023). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_cf9d00f449c1, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cf9d00f449c1

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Resolved true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Technological unemployment will continue to be a topic of academic debate that might show up if you crunch the numbers just right, but there will be no obvious sign that it is happening on a large…”

    Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 2018
    “There will not be a Truckpocalypse before 2023.”

    There will not be a 'Truckpocalypse' before 2023.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”

    The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 3 April 2025
    “In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”

    In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.