Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that by the end of 2017 SSC would have no co-bloggers with more than 5 posts.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
What would count as true or false
True if, by 31 December 2017, no author other than Scott Alexander had more than 5 posts on Slate Star Codex (read as posts published during 2017, or any co-blogger active on SSC in 2017). Guest posts and contest entries count only if the author has more than 5. False if any co-blogger had more than 5 posts on SSC in 2017. Mostly false if a co-blogger had exactly or nearly 5 posts and it turns on how posts are counted, e.g. whether guest or crossposted pieces count. Since this is a single outcome, it cannot be mixed.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 2017 Predictions: Calibration Results Slate Star Codex · 2 January 2018 Own record
“Strikethrough’d are false. Intact are true. Italicized are getting thrown out because I can’t decide if they’re true or not.”
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E2 2017 Predictions: Calibration Results Slate Star Codex · 2 January 2018 Own record
“And here are the predictions I made for 2017. Strikethrough’d are false. Intact are true. Italicized are getting thrown out because I can’t decide if they’re true or not.”
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E3 December 2017 – Slate Star Codex Slate Star Codex · 31 December 2017 Own record
“Posted on December 31, 2017 by Scott Alexander”
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E4 December 2017 – Slate Star Codex Slate Star Codex · 31 December 2017 Own record
“Posted on December 18, 2017 by Scott Alexander”
Reasoning
E1 and E4 give only the key to Scott Alexander's 2017 calibration post (strikethrough means false, intact means true). The quotes do not show how this particular prediction was marked. E5 and E6 show that two December 2017 posts were by Scott Alexander. They say nothing about posts by other authors during the rest of 2017. The evidence does not show whether any co-blogger had more than 5 posts on SSC in 2017, so the claim cannot be resolved.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that by the end of 2017 SSC would have no co-bloggers with more than 5 posts.” (said 6 January 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_cf161c4445f0, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cf161c4445f0
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Scott Alexander
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Resolved true
“I actually remember and grade these predictions publicly sometime in the year 2023: 90%”
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Mostly true
“Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”
The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.
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Mostly true
“We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”
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Mostly true
“In our scenario, that starts with cyber warfare, the government sees that these AIs are now as capable as the best human hackers, but can be deployed at humongous scale.”
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Resolved true
“So they become extremely interested and they discuss nationalizing the AI companies.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.