Taleb made many local mistakes in his books and went back and corrected almost all of them without anybody knowing.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
This claim is about Taleb's own books and his own actions, so it is judged as of 2017-07-10. True: there is documented evidence that Taleb's books (the Incerto volumes) contained many small, local errors that were fixed in later printings or editions, that almost all of the known errors were fixed, and that the fixes were made quietly, with no published errata or announcement. Mostly true: there were many quiet fixes, but a minor detail is off, for example some fixes were briefly noted publicly or a small share of known errors stayed. Mixed: the errors were real and some were fixed, but a large share of documented errors stayed in later printings, or the fixes were openly announced (published errata lists), so either 'almost all' or 'without anybody knowing' clearly fails. Mostly false: few of the known errors were fixed, or the fixes were widely publicised. False: comparing editions shows no fixes to documented errors, or the books are shown to have had no such errors. If edition comparisons or publisher records cannot be found, the claim is unresolvable, not false.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Fooled by Randomness - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“In 2005, Random House published a softback edition with more changes.”
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E2 Still fooled by randomness, twenty years later? Roskilde University research database (peer-reviewed book review by Spaniol, Evans, Tranekær, Rowland and Atkinson) · June 2021
“Taleb's (2005) updated softback second edition adds 146 pages to the original hardback, and con- tains, we agree with Stone (2005), “writing that's a bit smoother.””
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E3 Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Fooled by Randomness Grumpy Old Bookman (blog) · 20 August 2004
“a revised and expanded second edition was issued earlier this year.”
Reasoning
E1, E2 and E4 show only that Fooled by Randomness came out in a revised and expanded second edition, with a 2005 softback that added 146 pages and had smoother writing. None of them names specific local errors in the Incerto books, says whether later printings fixed them, or says whether any fixes were made quietly or announced in errata. The criteria require edition comparisons or publisher records, and this evidence does not supply them, so the claim cannot be settled.
Cite this claim
Nassim Taleb, “Taleb made many local mistakes in his books and went back and corrected almost all of them without anybody knowing.” (said 10 July 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_ce8d44214b3a, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ce8d44214b3a
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Nassim Taleb
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Mostly true
“adds 3 chapters and an appendix on Max Entropy distributions (includes Tsallis Entropy).”
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Resolved true
“Just to remind people that I have NOTHING to do with "nassimtaleb. org"”
Nassim Taleb has no connection to the website "nassimtaleb.org".
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Resolved true
“We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing 1)”
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Resolved true
“I am writing these lines from the vantage point of my specialty of decision making under uncertainty, not that of theology”
The author's specialty is decision making under uncertainty, not theology.
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Mostly true
“This part in Fooled by Randomness was inspired by the psychology of depositors in #Lebanon who enjoyed steady AND high returns.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.