ClaimsSam Altman

“Development progress may look relatively slow and then all of a sudden go vertical—things could get out of control very quickly”

Sam Altman, blog author February 2015 Machine intelligence, part 1 (Sam Altman's blog) archived copy

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

Machine intelligence progress may look slow and then suddenly go vertical, with things getting out of control quickly.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Hedged ('may') prediction with no horizon, and it can't be falsified.

Cite this claim

Sam Altman, “Machine intelligence progress may look slow and then suddenly go vertical, with things getting out of control quickly.” (said February 2015). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_cc8cc3bf4c1d, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cc8cc3bf4c1d

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Sam Altman, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Sam Altman

  1. Mostly true Prediction 5 January 2019
    “AGI will feel within reach to many people in the industry”

    By 2025, AGI will feel within reach to many people in the AI industry.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 9 August 2025
    “And it’s going to be sad because GPT-5 is going to launch and there’s going to be another big spike in demand and we’re not going to be able to serve it.”

    After GPT-5 launches there will be another big spike in demand that OpenAI will not be able to serve.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 21 December 2024
    “on many coding tasks, o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction!”

    On many coding tasks, OpenAI's o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 5 January 2019
    “We will get net-gain nuclear fusion working at prototype scale”

    By 2025, net-gain nuclear fusion will be working at prototype scale.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2017
    “I believe her.”

    Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started.

All of them

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