ClaimsBalaji Srinivasan

“the counter-decentralization, I believe, is going to succeed in China and fail in the US”

Balaji Srinivasan, interviewee 17 November 2021 Tim Ferriss Show #547 Balaji Srinivasan transcript (tim.blog)

Prediction AI policy and governance

Counter-decentralization (state control over networks) will succeed in China and fail in the US.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

No horizon and vague success criteria.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “Counter-decentralization (state control over networks) will succeed in China and fail in the US.” (said 17 November 2021). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_cc3d515b6b9b, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cc3d515b6b9b

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More prediction claims by Balaji Srinivasan

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    “France may not be able to hold him prisoner for long.”

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  2. Mostly false Prediction 25 March 2021
    “I think that by 2024, you're going to have to use VPN.”

    By 2024, people in the US will have to use a VPN because of ISP-level internet filtering and censorship.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 25 April 2018
    “I think China may well be vectoring in that direction.”

    China may be moving toward using AI for pervasive, all-seeing control of its population.

  4. Mixed Prediction 25 March 2021
    “So the fear is that, if vaccines are eventually rolled out and if enough Americans take them, then by 2023 or 2024, people will be spoiling for a fight to go and beat up China as the one legitimated…”

    He said he feared that, if vaccines were rolled out and enough Americans took them, by 2023 or 2024 people would be spoiling for a fight with China as the one legitimated enemy.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 31 March 2020
    “Censoring anyone (let alone a head of state) in this way will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms.”

    Censoring anyone in this way, let alone a head of state, will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms.

All of them

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