China may be moving toward using AI for pervasive, all-seeing control of its population.

Hedged prediction with no stated horizon. Judge it on evidence from 2018 through the following several years about whether China was moving toward AI-based pervasive surveillance and control of its population. True: credible reporting or research documents growing, large-scale state use of AI surveillance and control tools, such as nationwide facial-recognition camera networks, predictive policing, AI-driven monitoring in Xinjiang and social-credit-type systems, showing a clear trend toward pervasive monitoring. Mostly true: there is substantial AI surveillance expansion, but it is regional or fragmented rather than national in its reach. Mixed: there is some AI surveillance, but the evidence on a trend toward pervasive control is contested or mixed. Mostly false: deployments were small or pilot projects only, and observers found little movement toward population-wide AI control. False: the evidence shows China did not expand, or rolled back, AI-based population surveillance.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 China: Big Data Fuels Crackdown in Minority Region Human Rights Watch · 27 February 2018

   “Chinese authorities are building and deploying a predictive policing program based on big data analysis in Xinjiang, Human Rights Watch said today.”

2. E2 China: Big Data Fuels Crackdown in Minority Region Human Rights Watch · 27 February 2018

   “Across China, Human Rights Watch has also documented the authorities’ efforts in implementing new technological systems for mass surveillance, including the use of big data in the “Police Cloud” program.”

3. E3 Paul Mozur on How China is Using Tech Against its Own People PBS (Amanpour and Company), interview with New York Times reporter Paul Mozur · 7 May 2019

   “And what we discovered is that they’re starting to run computer vision and facial recognition algorithms that are marking people based on their race, based on whether they might have a history of mental illness”

4. E4 How China’s Government Is Using AI on Its Uighur Muslim Population | FRONTLINE | PBS | Official Site | Documentary Series PBS FRONTLINE · 21 November 2019

   “Surveillance and artificial intelligence technologies are being deployed all throughout China. Cameras with AI-powered facial recognition are everywhere, and various pilot projects use AI to give people a “social credit” score”

Human Rights Watch reported in 2018 that authorities were building a big-data predictive policing program in Xinjiang [E1], and that mass-surveillance systems such as the "Police Cloud" were being rolled out across China [E2]. In 2019, reporting by Paul Mozur described facial-recognition algorithms flagging people by race and mental-health history [E3]. PBS FRONTLINE reported that AI surveillance was "deployed all throughout China", with AI facial-recognition cameras "everywhere" and social-credit pilots in place [E4]. Together, these independent sources from 2018 and 2019 show large, growing, nationwide state use of AI surveillance, which meets the "true" criteria for the hedged prediction. The social-credit systems are described only as pilots, but that does not change the overall trend.