Censoring anyone in this way, let alone a head of state, will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms.

Horizon: end-2022. 'Censorship-resistant platforms' means platforms marketed as free-speech or uncensorable, or built on decentralised protocols (e.g. Gab, Parler, Gettr, Rumble, Mastodon/fediverse, Nostr, Telegram). TRUE: documented, measurable migration of users to such platforms (download or sign-up surges, user-count data) directly after a mainstream platform censored, labelled, removed content from or banned a head of state (e.g. Twitter's actions on Bolsonaro/Maduro posts in 2020, or the deplatforming of Trump in January 2021), with credible reporting or research linking the migration to that action. MOSTLY TRUE: the link is shown, but the migration was modest or short-lived. MIXED: some migration occurred, but it is unclear whether it was caused by the head-of-state censorship or by other factors. MOSTLY FALSE: movement occurred only to platforms that are not meaningfully censorship-resistant, or was negligible and not tied to the censorship. FALSE: data show no notable movement of users to such platforms after these events.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Parler jumps to No. 1 on App Store after Facebook and Twitter ban Trump | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 9 January 2021

   “It’s worth noting that Parler and Gab aren’t the only companies to see users numbers soar after the Trump bans. MeWe Network, OANN, Newsmax and Rumble have also seen adoption soar, according to data from the analytics company Apptopia.”

2. E2 Parler jumps to No. 1 on App Store after Facebook and Twitter ban Trump | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 9 January 2021

   ““It is an event driven app though,” a company analyst noted. “After events like the election, BLM protests, Twitter first applying labels to Trump’s Tweets, we see bursts of downloads and usage but it will then drop off.””

3. E3 Parler’s Popularity Plummets As Data Reveals Little Appetite For Returning ‘Free Speech’ App Favored By Conservatives Forbes · 2 June 2021

   “While the recent figures do not represent a full month, the first ten days of January saw around 870,000 new users install the app on Apple devices amid an influx of users seeking refuge from perceived conservative censorship on platforms like Facebook and Twitter.”

4. E4 From Content Moderation to Platform Migration: An Ecological Analysis of Deplatforming Donald Trump on Twitter CUHK Research (Wei and Yang, AEJMC 2024 conference paper) · August 2024

   “found that after Twitter’s deplatforming Trump, users continued using Twitter but increased visits to alternative domains.”

TechCrunch reported that, citing Apptopia data, adoption of Parler, Gab, MeWe and Rumble rose after Facebook and Twitter banned Trump in January 2021 (E1). Forbes reported about 870,000 new Parler installs on Apple devices in the first ten days of January, from users looking for refuge from perceived censorship (E3). Academic research found users visited alternative domains more after the deplatforming (E4). However, an analyst described the downloads as event-driven bursts that drop off (E2), and the Forbes piece reports that Parler's popularity later plummeted (E3), so the migration fits the criteria's "short-lived" description.