ClaimsSam Altman

“I expect that they will continue to do a lot of things well, have significant data and computation advantages, be able to attract a large percentage of the most talented engineers, and aggressively buy companies that get off to promising starts.”

Sam Altman, President of YC Group, in YC annual letter 1 January 2017 2017 YC Annual Letter (Sam Altman's blog) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple and Microsoft will continue to do many things well, hold data and computation advantages, attract many top engineers, and aggressively buy promising startups.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Open-ended prediction with no horizon and vague terms.

Cite this claim

Sam Altman, “Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple and Microsoft will continue to do many things well, hold data and computation advantages, attract many top engineers, and aggressively buy promising startups.” (said 1 January 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_c8f505c444a0, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c8f505c444a0

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Sam Altman, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Sam Altman

  1. Mostly true Prediction 9 August 2025
    “And it’s going to be sad because GPT-5 is going to launch and there’s going to be another big spike in demand and we’re not going to be able to serve it.”

    After GPT-5 launches there will be another big spike in demand that OpenAI will not be able to serve.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 21 December 2024
    “on many coding tasks, o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction!”

    On many coding tasks, OpenAI's o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 5 January 2019
    “AGI will feel within reach to many people in the industry”

    By 2025, AGI will feel within reach to many people in the AI industry.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 5 January 2019
    “We will get net-gain nuclear fusion working at prototype scale”

    By 2025, net-gain nuclear fusion will be working at prototype scale.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2017
    “I believe her.”

    Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.