ClaimsRay Kurzweil

“Yet the fifteen year project was nonetheless completed slightly ahead of schedule.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author January 2001 The Law of Accelerating Returns (Kurzweil Library) archived copy

Factual Science and research methods

The fifteen-year human genome project was completed slightly ahead of schedule.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge as of January 2001. True: by January 2001 the Human Genome Project had completed its stated goal, judged against its original 15-year schedule (launched 1990, target 2005), and finished slightly ahead of that target. Mostly true: a major officially declared project milestone presented as completion (for example the working draft announced in June 2000) had been completed ahead of schedule by January 2001, with only minor qualifications. Mostly false: by January 2001 only an intermediate product, such as a rough draft, existed, while the finished sequence that constituted project completion was still pending; this states a part as the whole. False: by January 2001 the project was behind schedule or no major milestone had been completed early.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium Announces "Working Draft" of Human Genome National Human Genome Research Institute (NIH) · June 2000

    “The consortium's ultimate goal is to produce a completely finished sequence, i.e., one with no gaps and 99.99 percent accuracy. The target date for this ultimate goal had been 2003, but today's results mean that the final, stand-the-test-of-time sequence will likely be produced considerably ahead of that schedule.”
  2. E2 International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium Announces "Working Draft" of Human Genome National Human Genome Research Institute (NIH) · June 2000

    “The average quality of the "working draft" sequence far exceeds the consortium's original expectations for this intermediate product.”
  3. E3 On the sequencing and assembly of the human genome PubMed Central (authors from Celera Genomics and the HGSC) · 19 March 2002

    “On June 26, 2000, Celera Genomics and the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium (HGSC) announced at the White House the completion of the first assembly of the human genome and the completion of a rough draft, respectively.”
  4. E4 International Consortium Completes Human Genome Project National Human Genome Research Institute (NIH) · 14 April 2003

    “At the outset, the U.S. Congress was told the project would cost about $3 billion in FY 1991 dollars and would be completed by the end of 2005.”

Reasoning

By June 2000 the consortium had announced a "working draft" (E1, E3), which NHGRI itself called an "intermediate product" (E2). The same release says the ultimate goal was a completely finished sequence, still pending and expected by around 2003 (E1). Against the original end-2005 target told to Congress (E4), the evidence shows that by January 2001 only an intermediate draft existed, not project completion. That matches the criteria's mostly-false case of stating a part as the whole.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “The fifteen-year human genome project was completed slightly ahead of schedule.” (said January 2001). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_c5918725e00f, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c5918725e00f

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More factual claims by Ray Kurzweil

  1. Mostly false Factual 9 July 2024
    “Right now, you’re getting back about four months a year.”

    Currently scientific progress gives back about four months of life expectancy per year.

  2. Mostly false Factual 9 July 2024
    “And then AlphaFold 2 in 2022 went through 200 million proteins and got the shape exactly correct, and that’s going to help come up with new medications.”

    AlphaFold 2 in 2022 went through 200 million proteins and got their shapes exactly correct, which will help produce new medications.

  3. Resolved true Factual 9 July 2024
    “As of two or three years ago, we had gone through 170,000 proteins.”

    As of two or three years ago, 170,000 proteins had been worked through by people.

  4. Mixed Factual May 2020
    “The current method for testing these few treatments is to organize a few hundred human subjects and then test them over about a year and a half, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.”

    The current method for testing the few treatments that are tried organizes a few hundred human subjects and tests them over about a year and a half, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.

  5. Mostly true Factual May 2020
    “Very often, the first several solutions tested on humans are not ideal and lead to other solutions that also take a few years to develop and test.”

    Very often the first several solutions tested on humans are not ideal and lead to other solutions that also take a few years to develop and test.

All of them

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