The current method for testing the few treatments that are tried organizes a few hundred human subjects and tests them over about a year and a half, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Compare with typical clinical trial practice as of 2020. True: typical trials of candidate treatments involve a few hundred subjects, last about 1.5 years, and cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Mostly true: the description fits a common phase (e.g., Phase 2) with one detail somewhat off, such as cost being lower per trial but hundreds of millions across development. Mixed: two of the three elements (subjects, duration, cost) broadly hold and one is clearly off. Mostly false: only one element holds, or the description conflates trial phases in a distorting way. False: typical trials differ substantially on all three elements.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Estimated Costs of Pivotal Trials for Novel Therapeutic Agents Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, 2015-2016 PMC (Moore et al., JAMA Internal Medicine) · 24 September 2018

   “the median estimated direct cost of pivotal efficacy trials was $19 million, with half of the trial cost estimates ranging from $12 million to $33 million. At the extremes of the distribution were 100-fold cost differences, and patient enrollment varied from fewer than 15 patients to more than 8000 patients.”

2. E2 Variation in the estimated costs of pivotal clinical benefit trials supporting the US approval of new therapeutic agents, 2015–2017: a cross-sectional study PMC (BMJ Open) · 11 June 2020

   “The 225 individual clinical trials had a median estimate of US$19 million (IQR US$12 million–US$33 million) per trial and US$41 413 (IQR, US$29 894–US$75 047) per patient.”

3. E3 Variation in the estimated costs of pivotal clinical benefit trials supporting the US approval of new therapeutic agents, 2015–2017: a cross-sectional study PMC (BMJ Open) · 11 June 2020

   “Although the trials enrolled a median of 495 patients there was wide variation, ranging from 4 patients to 8446 patients.”

4. E4 Variation in the estimated costs of pivotal clinical benefit trials supporting the US approval of new therapeutic agents, 2015–2017: a cross-sectional study PMC (BMJ Open) · 11 June 2020

   “The estimated costs are modest for measuring the benefits of new therapeutic agents but rise exponentially as more patients and clinic visits are required to establish a drug effect.”

For pivotal trials supporting FDA approvals in 2015–2017, the median enrollment was 495 patients (E3), which fits "a few hundred" subjects. The median estimated cost per trial was about $19 million, with an interquartile range of $12–33 million (E1, E2). That is well below "hundreds of millions," so the cost element is clearly off. No evidence addresses the roughly 1.5-year duration, so only one element is confirmed and one is clearly wrong, which places the claim between mixed and mostly false.