After Sora's February 2024 announcement, Marcus predicted its physics troubles would persist, and they have.

Two parts, judged as of the date Marcus published this statement (after February 2024, likely later in 2024). (a) Immediately after OpenAI announced Sora (15 February 2024), Marcus noted its physics problems and predicted they would persist. (b) Those physics problems had not gone away by the time of the statement. True: dated Marcus posts from within days of the announcement contain both the observation and the prediction, and evidence up to the statement date (released Sora outputs, reviews, analyses) shows Sora still producing physically implausible results. Mostly true: both parts hold, but a minor detail differs, for example the prediction came some days or weeks later, or the problems had lessened noticeably while remaining evident. Mixed: one part holds and the other does not, for example he noted the problems but made no prediction. Mostly false: he made the prediction, but the physics problems had largely been resolved by the time of the statement. False: he made no such observation or prediction around the announcement, and the problems were resolved.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Sora’s Surreal Physics Gary Marcus (Substack) · 16 February 2024 Own record

   “And importantly, I predict that many will be hard to remedy.”

2. E2 Sora is here OpenAI · 9 December 2024

   “It often generates unrealistic physics and struggles with complex actions over long durations.”

3. E3 Sora still appears to have trouble with physics Gary Marcus (Substack) · 10 December 2024 Own record

   “Looks like these problems linger in a new release of Sora that came out today”

4. E4 No, Sora has not “learned physics” Gary Marcus (Substack) · 2 March 2024 Own record

   “It is precisely because Sora is not a physics engine that a large fraction of Sora's videos are inconsistent with physics or biology, in very basic ways.”

Marcus's own post dated 16 February 2024, the day after the Sora announcement, is a dated record of what he wrote then. In it he noted physical glitches and predicted that many would be "hard to remedy" (E1), and he repeated the point on 2 March 2024 (E4). OpenAI is independent of Marcus, and its December 2024 release announcement says Sora "often generates unrealistic physics" (E2). That shows the problems were still there in 2024, which matches Marcus's December 2024 observation (E3).