ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“So, if there was a confrontation in Taiwan, the shock to the global economy is going to be much bigger than any spike in oil and food prices.”

Nouriel Roubini, interviewee 3 January 2023 Storm Clouds Looming: Q&A With Nouriel Roubini (Global Finance Magazine)

Prediction Other global risks

A confrontation in Taiwan would shock the global economy far more than any spike in oil and food prices.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Hypothetical event with no horizon that has not occurred.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “A confrontation in Taiwan would shock the global economy far more than any spike in oil and food prices.” (said 3 January 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_c14afd242e0e, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c14afd242e0e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More prediction claims by Nouriel Roubini

  1. Resolved true Prediction 3 January 2023
    “China’s not going to take lightly this attempt at full technological and economic containment.”

    China will respond strongly to US technological and economic containment rather than take it lightly.

  2. Resolved false Prediction 30 June 2024
    “In a note to my clients this week I made a wide out-of-consensus call that the RN - Le Pen’s party - will win an absolute majority in the current French parliamentary elections (60% probability for…”

    The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 27 October 2023
    “As I predicted in early September in an interview with Bloomberg”

    US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023).

  4. Mostly false Prediction 3 January 2023
    “They are talking tough [but if] faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, they’re going to wimp out.”

    Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further.

  5. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “So it’s much worse than the ‘70s, and it’s probably as bad as during the GFC.”

    The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

All of them

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