ClaimsJeremy Grantham

“We now have over 70 estimates since 1994, admittedly with overlapping time periods, and every single one of them was better than random”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO letter author October 2009 Jeremy Grantham GMO letter 3Q 2009: Just Desserts and Markets Being Silly Again (Scribd)

This quote could not be matched word for word to the source page.

Factual Their own work or organisation

GMO has over 70 seven-year forecast estimates since 1994 and every one ranked asset classes better than random.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Only GMO's internal forecast records could show this.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “GMO has over 70 seven-year forecast estimates since 1994 and every one ranked asset classes better than random.” (said October 2009). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_bfaf73a1ae35, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_bfaf73a1ae35

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Jeremy Grantham, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Jeremy Grantham

  1. Mostly true Factual January 2016
    “The tone of the market commentators back in January, when I was writing my last quarterly letter, seemed much too pessimistic on global stock markets, particularly the U.S. market, and I said so.”

    In his previous quarterly letter written in January, Grantham said market commentators were too pessimistic on global stock markets, especially the U.S.

  2. Mostly true Factual January 2016
    “I had warned of trouble if China slowed its growth for demand for minerals quickly.”

    Grantham had earlier warned of trouble if China quickly slowed its demand growth for minerals.

  3. Mixed Factual 3 December 2012
    “We have been modeling momentum and value as two key variables for 33 years, so this is pretty old hat.”

    GMO has modeled momentum and value as two key variables for 33 years.

  4. Resolved true Factual 3 December 2012
    “We are solvent, and we have stayed in business.”

    GMO is solvent and has stayed in business.

  5. Mostly true Factual April 2012
    “we were 2 to 3 years early in our calls in both cases.”

    GMO's calls on the Japan 65 P/E market and the 2000 U.S. tech bubble were 2 to 3 years early.

All of them

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