GMO's calls on the Japan 65 P/E market and the 2000 U.S. tech bubble were 2 to 3 years early.

True if records show GMO's warnings came about 2-3 years before the peaks: before Japan's December 1989 peak (warnings from about 1987) and before the March 2000 US tech peak (warnings from about 1997-98). Mostly true if one call was about 1 or 4 years early. Mixed if one case fits and the other is clearly different. Mostly false if both lead times differ greatly from 2-3 years but the calls were early. False if the calls were not early (e.g. made at or after the peaks).

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Jeremy Grantham Warns Fed Can’t Keep ‘Epic Bubble’ From Bursting Institutional Investor · 5 January 2021

   “Although Grantham deemed it a prudent exit at the time, he said the firm was three years too early calling the Japan bubble and painfully underperformed as the Japanese market kept inflating”

2. E2 Jeremy Grantham Warns Fed Can’t Keep ‘Epic Bubble’ From Bursting Institutional Investor · 5 January 2021

   “Grantham also profited from the bursting of the 2000 bubble, though not before watching “in horror” as the market continued to soar after GMO had “rapidly sold down” its discretionary U.S. equity positions in early 1997, according to his paper.”

3. E3 10 March 2000: the dotcom bubble peaks MoneyWeek · 10 March 2016

   “On that day, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index reached its pinnacle at 5,132.52, ending the day at 5,048.62. The dotcom bubble that had been inflating since 1997 finally popped.”

4. E4 The messenger shoots back Institutional Investor · 31 July 2003

   “In 1999, as the S&P 500 soared to 30 times earnings and beyond, GMO began positioning portfolios more defensively.”

E1 reports that GMO was "three years too early" on the Japan bubble, which is within the claimed range. E2 says GMO sold down its discretionary U.S. equity positions in early 1997. E3 dates the tech peak to 10 March 2000, so that call came about three years early, also within 2 to 3 years. Two things keep this from a full true: E1 and E2 largely relay Grantham's own paper rather than contemporaneous records, and E4 dates GMO's more defensive positioning to 1999, which would mean a shorter lead time.